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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 020
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Thu 01 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon TALAS (15W) turns slowly northwestward...threatens the main Japanese Islands of Shikoku & Honshu.
Residents and visitors along Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION 2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu September 01 2011
Location of Center: 27.5º N Lat 136.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 459 km WNW of Bonin Island
Distance 2: 546 km WNW of Chichi Jima
Distance 3: 697 km SSE of Tanabe, Japan
Distance 4: 869 km ENE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 961 km SSW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 175 kph (95 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Towards: Shikoku-Honshu Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 450 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 965 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1,205 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 39 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM JST Thu Sep 01
TALAS (15W) is expected to move NW-ward during the next 24 hours with a gradual turn to the North through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the large core of the typhoon will approach in between the coast of Shikoku & Honshu, Japan early Saturday. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues tracking NW...about 445 km South of Tanabe, Japan [5AM SEP 02: 29.7N 135.5E @ 120kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS)...bearing down the coast of Shikoku and Honshu while moving NNW...about 50 km SW of Tanabe, Japan [2AM SEP 03: 33.4N 135.0E @ 110kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) remain near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Little change in strength is expected before TALAS reaches the coast of Southern Japan. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 120 kilometers (65 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 425 kilometers (230 nautical miles). TALAS remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,205 kilometers (650 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
TALAS' (15W) radial circulation remains intact with a very large center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
LARGE EYE - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
LOOSE EYEWALL - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - moving away from Iwo To, Bonin & Chichi Jima Islands, improving weather conditions expected later today. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 205 to 450 mm (high) along areas near the center of TALAS (15W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) THU 01 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 27.5N 136.4E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH
OF OSAKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TS 15W HAS SHOWN ONLY MILD IMPROVEMENT IN
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD
AND NEARLY CLOUD-FREE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 31156Z
ASCAT IMAGE CAPTURES THE EXPANSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. GALES
EXTEND OVER 200 NM OUTWARDS FROM THE LLCC IN ALL QUADRANTS.
CONVECTION HAS NEVER MANAGED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE MOST RECENT TWO MICROWAVE SERIES, A 311106Z SSMIS AND A 311715Z
AMSRE, REVEAL THAT THICK LOW LEVEL BANDING COMPLETELY ENCIRCLES THE
LLCC, BUT THE SCATTERING FREQUENCIES INDICATE THE CONVECTION IS
SHALLOW. THE CAUSE OF THE SUPPRESSED CONVECTION IS REVEALED ON THE
PGTW 311200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS, WHICH SHOWS AN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST AMSUB TEMPERATURE
PROFILE, HOWEVER, SHOWS A CLEAR MID-LEVEL WARM ANOMALY. IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS NOT ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ENOUGH DEPTH AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE CORE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ASCAT IMAGE, AS THE DISPLACEMENT
OF CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LLCC IS MAKING DVORAK ESTIMATES LESS
REPRESENTATIVE. TS 15W EXISTS IN A REGION OF ONLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 27 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 36N
145E. THE ANTICYCLONE IS PART OF A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK AND IS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AS THE BLOCK DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFIES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IT WILL ALLOW TS 15W TO MAKE A GRADUAL
TURN POLEWARD. ALTHOUGH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ADEQUATE
RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM, THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL SLOW
INTENSIFICATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG TRACK WILL INCREASE
TO 29 DEGREES AS TS 15W APPROACHES THE KUROSHIO CURRENT, WHERE THE
SYSTEM WILL PEAK AT MINIMAL TYPHOON STRENGTH. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOPS AND SURFACE REPORTS FROM CENTRAL HONSHU INDICATE TS 15W
WILL REMAIN IN A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH LANDFALL, AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS UP TO COASTAL
HONSHU, SO THE PRIMARY WEAKENING FORCE WILL BE LAND INTERACTION.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
FOR TS 15W TO RE-GROUP IN THE EASTERN SEA OF JAPAN, BUT BY TAU 72
THE SYSTEM WILL BE ENCOUNTER A SHARP DROP IN SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, A SHARP INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
INTERACTION WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE. BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96 TS 15W
WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WHILE ACCELERATING TOWARDS
SAKHALIN ISLAND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISPARITY IN TIMING
AND THE EXACT POINT OF CROSSING OVER HONSHU, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO. THE JTWC TRACK STAYS EAST OF
CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO COMPENSATE FOR TWO WESTWARD OUTLIERS, EGRR AND
NOGAPS, WHICH ARE SLOWLING CONSENSUS AND PULLING IT
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
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