Saturday, September 17, 2011

TS ROKE [ONYOK] - Update #15


for Saturday, 17 September 2011 [12:20 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday Sep 16 2011):

Please be informed that beginning September 15 to 20 (Thu-Tue), T2K will be issuing irregular advisories as I am currently out for vacation. Kindly bear with me. Thank you ~ MVP.


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


11:00 PM PhT (15:00 GMT) Fri 16 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #021/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm ROKE (ONYOK) moving very slowly southwestward closer to Okinawa...intensified slightly.

This system will slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) & bring occasional shower or rains w/ breezy conditions across Western Luzon through the weekend.

Residents and visitors along the Okinawa, Ryukyus & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of ROKE (ONYOK).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Fri September 16 2011
Location of Center: 26.0º N Lat 129.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 111 km North of P. A. R.
Distance 2: 169 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 292 km SSW of Naje Is., Ryukyus
Distance 4: 790 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 972 km NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: WSW @ 04 kph (02 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
CPA [ETA] to Okinawa: Saturday-Tuesday
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20 mm/hr (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 925 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 19 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 PM PhT Fri Sep 16


ROKE (ONYOK) is expected to continue crawling generally west-southwestward during the next 24 hours...and will track more westward over the next 36 to 48 hours. Through 72 hours, ROKE will start to move erratically. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will be approaching Okinawa Saturday and will remain quasi-stationary along the SE shores of Okinawa beginning Sunday until Tuesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. 18W is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Further strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers (100 nautical miles) from the center.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY EVENING:  Maintain its strength & track towards Okinawa...about 137 km ESE of Naha International Airport [8PM SEP 17: 25.8N 129.0 @ 75kph].
SUNDAY EVENING:  Slowly intensifying as it approaches Okinawa Island...turns Westward...about 69 km SE of Naha International Airport [8PM SEP 18: 25.9N 128.3E @ 85kph].
MONDAY EVENING:  Passing very near the SE shores of Okinawa...moving WNW...about 46 km ESE of Naha International Airport [8PM SEP 19: 26.0N 128.1E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ROKE's (ONYOK) circulation remains very large with increasing spiral curved rainbands forming near the center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Okinawa & Ryukyus. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across North Philippine Sea & the Iwo To-Bonin-Chichi Jima Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 520 mm (low to very high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 25 to 200 mm (medium to high) along areas near the center of ROKE (ONYOK). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing afternoon or evening showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, ZAMBALES, SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including MINDORO & LUBANG ISLAND. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS ROKE (ONYOK)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1811.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS ROKE (ONYOK)...go visit our website @:


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