for Saturday, 24 September 2011 [6:20 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Sep 24 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NESAT (PEDRING).
NESAT (PEDRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
TROPICAL STORM NESAT [PEDRING/20W/1117]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sat 24 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #004/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm NESAT (PEDRING) continues to gain strength as it entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...now threatens the main island of Luzon in the Philippines.
Projected Landfall Area (PLA): Isabela & Cagayan Provinces on Tuesday evening.
Residents and visitors along Luzon particularly Cagayan & Isabela should closely monitor the progress of NESAT (PEDRING).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sat September 24 2011
Location of Center: 14.9º N Lat 134.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 735 km NW of Yap, FSM
Distance 2: 1,087 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 1,194 km ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 4: 1,304 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 1,419 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: Northern Luzon
CPA [ETA] to Isabela-Cagayan: Tuesday Night [8-11pm PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 295 km (160 nm) [Small]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PhT Sat Sep 24
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
NESAT (PEDRING) is expected to continue moving on a straight-West to WNW motion throughout the forecast...with some fluctuations on its forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will move into the warm Philippine Sea during the next couple of days...and will be approaching the east coast of Extreme Northern Luzon, particularly Isabela & Cagayan on Tuesday.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 85 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. NESAT is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Gradual strengthening will continue during the next couple of days...and NESAT could become a Typhoon by Sunday afternoon or evening.
Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center. NESAT is currently a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 295 kilometers (160 nautical miles). Continued increase of its circulation size is likely as the system moves into the warm Philippine Sea in the next couple of days.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Moving West to WNW across the warm Central Philippine Sea...almost a Typhoon...about 675 km ENE of Catanduanes, PH [2PM SEP 25: 15.7N 130.3 @ 110kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Upgraded to a Typhoon (Category 2) as it maintains its WNW movement towards Extreme Northern Luzon...about 325 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes, PH [2PM SEP 26: 16.3N 126.2E @ 165kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Gradually becomes a Super Typhoon (Category 4) as it bears down the coast of Isabela-Cagayan Area...forward speed slightly decreases...about 78 km ENE of Palanan Bay, Isabela, PH [2PM SEP 27: 17.4 123.2E @ 240kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NESAT's (PEDRING) circulation continues to become better organized w/ its spiral rainbands starting to slowly expand while over the Easternmost Philippine Sea. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of NESAT (PEDRING). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA) has started to become better organized over the South China Sea, near the coastal areas of Vietnam & Hainan Island. The system was located about 349 km ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam (15.5N 111.4E)...maximum sustained winds of 35 kph...gusting up to 55 kph...Quasi-Stationary. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential has been upgraded to HIGH (80%). To view the latest information on this storm kindly click this link.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: MINDANAO & Portions of WESTERN LUZON. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS NESAT (PEDRING)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2011.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TYPHOON2000 CURRENT STORMTRACK:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS NESAT (PEDRING)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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