Wednesday, September 14, 2011

TS ROKE [ONYOK] - Update #009


for Wednesday, 14 September 2011 [11:52 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday Sep 11 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on ROKE (ONYOK).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 25 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Wed 14 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #011/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm ROKE (ONYOK) has started turning back to the west-northwest...threatens the Southern Islands of Japan.

Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA) remains weak near 20.5N 125.0E or about 312 km East of Basco, Batanes. The presence of these 2 systems will slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon & bring light occasional rains across the western sections of Luzon & Visayas through the weekend.

Residents and visitors along the Okinawa, Ryukyus & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of ROKE (ONYOK).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Wed September 14 2011
Location of Center: 24.3º N Lat 137.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 203 km East of P. A. R.
Distance 2: 438 km West of Iwo To
Distance 3: 956 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 1,598 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Ryukyus-Okinawa Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Wed Sep 14


ROKE (ONYOK) is expected to maintain its northwest track over the next 48 hours...bending more to the west through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will be approaching the Ryukyu Island Chain with decreasing forward speed on Friday & Saturday. Based on this new predicted path, ROKE will no longer re-enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. 18W is now a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Further strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days...and ROKE could be near typhoon intensity by the weekend.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY MORNING:  Maintains its strength and track towards the Ryukyus...about 611 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [8AM SEP 15: 26.0N 133.9 @ 65kph].
FRIDAY MORNING:  Gaining strength as it moves closer to the Ryukyus...about 184 km SSE of Naje Island [8AM SEP 16: 27.2N 130.8E @ 85kph].
SATURDAY MORNING:  Bending more to the west as it slows down while over the Ryukyus...about 137 km SSW of Naje Island [8AM SEP 17: 27.4N 129.5E @ 95kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ROKE's (ONYOK) circulation remains sheared with most of the convective rainbands remain restricted over the eastern periphery with some along the south. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

EASTERN RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Iwo To, Bonin, & Chichi Jima. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 350 mm (high) along areas near the center of ROKE (ONYOK). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).


Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) has become better organized as it remains quasi-stationary to the ENE of the Marianas...will likely develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours. The system was located about 715 km NNW of Guam, CNMI (20.1N 154.2E)...maximum sustained winds of 30 kph. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential has been upgraded to MEDIUM (50%). To view the latest satellite image on this storm kindly click this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, light rains will be expected across the following affected areas: BICOL REGION, SOUTHWESTERN LUZON, MINDORO & CALAMIAN GROUP. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS ROKE (ONYOK)...go visit our website @:


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