for Thursday, 08 September 2011 [12:28 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Sep 08 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter, SMS, and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on KULAP (NONOY).
KULAP (NONOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM KULAP [NONOY/17W/1114]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Thu 08 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #004/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm KULAP (NONOY) has weakened slightly as it encounters unfavorable upper-level winds (aka. vertical wind shear) while moving quicky northwestward...exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Residents and visitors along Okinawa, Ryukyus & the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of KULAP (NONOY).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Thu September 08 2011
Location of Center: 24.4º N Lat 133.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 605 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 533 km SE of Naje Is.
Distance 3: 1,218 km East of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 763 km SSE of Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 5: 1,311 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: Ryukyu Islands
CPA [ETA] to Naje: Friday [2-6pm HKT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 300 mm (Heavy)
Rainrate (near center): 20-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 335 km [Small]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9 AM JST Thu Sep 08
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
KULAP's (NONOY) general northwesterly motion is expected to continue during the next two days. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will pass over or very close to the Japanese Island of Naje off the Ryukyus on Friday afternoon or evening...and across the East China Sea on Saturday.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. KULAP is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale....and re-strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center. KULAP is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles).
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:
THURSDAY EVENING: Maintains its strength and NW-ward motion...about 471 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [8PM SEP 08: 26.1N 132.5 @ 75kph]. FRIDAY MORNING: Approaching the Ryukyus...about 151 km SE of Naje Island, Ryukyus [8AM SEP 09: 27.5N 130.7E @ 75kph]. FRIDAY EVENING: Slightly gaining strength after passing across the Ryukyus...about 89 km East of Naje Island, Ryukyus [8PM SEP 09: 28.7N 128.9E @ 85kph]. SATURDAY MORNING: Continues to gain strength as it moves across the East China Sea...about 406 km NNW of Okinawa, Japan [8AM SEP 10: 30.1N 127.1E @ 95kph].
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL, PALAWAN, & VISAYAS. Calm & light to moderate SE'ly to SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
KULAP's (NONOY) circulation has slightly become disorganized - revealing an exposed low-level circulation center with rain-cloud convection displaced on the south side. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 105 to 300 mm (high) along areas near the center of KULAP. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) THU 08 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 24.6N 134.2E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED NEARLY 180 NM TO
THE SOUTH. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS COOLING CLOUD TOPS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 08/2353 SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THIS SSMIS IMAGE ALSO INDICATES
DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, INHIBITING CONVECTION
IN THIS REGION. A 07/1252Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES TS 17W HAS
REMAINED SMALL IN SIZE, WITH 25-KNOT WIND RADII LESS THAN 120 NM
FROM THE CENTER. INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI
AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY, AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES RANGING FROM 25 TO 45 KNOTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DECENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
HOWEVER POLEWARD HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE. THE 07/1200Z PGTW UPPER
LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS 17W IS LOCATED BENEATH A RIDGE
AXIS IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS KULAP IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM...(more info)
>> KULAP, meaning: Rose. Name contributed by: Thailand.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS KULAP (NONOY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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