Friday, September 30, 2011

Typhoon NALGAE [QUIEL] - Update #005


for Friday, 30 September 2011 [1:22 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Sep 28 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NALGAE (QUIEL).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 30 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #012/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon NALGAE (QUIEL) continues its westward track across the North Philippine Sea...seriously threatens Cagayan & Isabela Provinces. Landfall is now expected along Isabela-Cagayan Border in 24 hours.

Projected Landfall Area (PLA): Along Cagayan-Isabela Border...just north of Divilacan Bay at approx 12-2 PM local time Saturday.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of NALGAE (QUIEL).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri September 30 2011
Location of Eye: 17.8º N Lat 127.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 646 km East of Tuguegarao City
Distance 2: 640 km ENE of Ilagan City
Distance 3: 655 km ENE of Cauayan, Isabela
Distance 4: 648 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 632 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 763 km ESE of Laoag City
Distance 7: 784 km East of Vigan City
Distance 8: 799 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: Cagayan-Isabela Area
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Light-Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PhT Fri Sep 30


NALGAE (QUIEL) will continue to move generally westward (known in meteorology as a "Straight-Runner") throughout the forecast period...with some increase in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will make landfall along Cagayan-Isabela Border Saturday Noon or afternoon...and cross Northern Luzon through the evening. NALGAE will move out of Northern Luzon via Ilocos Sur Sunday early morning...and will be over the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) Sunday afternoon. By Monday, NALGAE will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), on its way towards Hainan Island, Southern China.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 150 km/hr (80 knots) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours, prior in making landfall over Northern Luzon...and NALGAE could become a Category 3 Typhoon late tonight or early Saturday. This cyclone is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers (100 nautical miles). NALGAE is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers (270 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY MORNING:  Intensifies into a Category 3 Typhoon...approaching the shores of Isabela-Cagayan...191 km East of Tuguegarao City [8AM OCT 01: 17.5N 123.5E @ 205kph].
SUNDAY MORNING:  Moving into the West Philippine Sea, after crossing Northern Luzon...203 km ESE of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [8AM OCT 02: 17.4N 118.5E @ 130kph].
MONDAY MORNING:  Maintains its strength as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on its way towards Southern China [8AM OCT 03: 17.8N 114.5E @ 130kph].


ISABELA-CAGAYAN BORDER:  Passing over the boundary...[ETA: 12:00-2:00 PM Local Time, Saturday].
ILOCOS SUR:  Passing near Vigan City [ETA: 10:00-11:00 PM Saturday].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


NALGAE's (QUIEL's) compact circulation improving with a small, pin-hole eye emerging on satellite imageries. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

SMALL, CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (West Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas...but will approach the coastal areas of Isabela & Cagayan Saturday morning. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas...however its western outer rainbands will reach Cagayan, Isabela & Northern Aurora later tonight. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of NALGAE (QUIEL). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Northeastern Luzon beginning tonight or early Saturday. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Luzon.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).


Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA) tagging along to the south of NALGAE...near Palau...east of Mindanao. Its weak center was located about 1170 km ESE of Surigao City (8.0N 136.0E)...maximum sustained winds of 30 kph and remains almost stationary. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential is LOW (20%).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
Now In Effect:

The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning Saturday (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and 100-185 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning late tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

External Links for TY NALGAE (QUIEL)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2211.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop




>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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