Sunday, September 25, 2011

TS NESAT [PEDRING] - Update #007


for Sunday, 25 September 2011 [7:15 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Sep 24 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NESAT (PEDRING).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sun 25 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #006/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm NESAT (PEDRING) quickly moving westward across the warm Philippine Sea and intensifying...may become a Typhoon today...Outer Rainbands approaching the Bicol Region & Eastern Visayas.

Projected Landfall Area (PLA): Isabela or Cagayan Provinces on Tuesday afternoon...with possible entry point along Divilacan & Palanan Bay Area.

Residents and visitors along Luzon particularly Cagayan & Isabela should closely monitor the progress of NESAT (PEDRING).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun September 25 2011
Location of Center: 14.9º N Lat 131.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 768 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 874 km ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 3: 985 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 1,021 km East of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 5: 1,097 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: Northern Luzon
CPA [ETA] to Isabela-Cagayan: Tuesday Afternoon [2-8pm PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 150 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 10-15 mm/hr (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PhT Sun Sep 25


NESAT (PEDRING) is expected to continue moving on a straight-Westerly motion during the next 24 hours...turning WNW later in the forecast with some decrease on its forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will continue moving across the Philippine Sea during the next couple of days...making landfall along Palanan-Divilacan Bay in Isabela on Tuesday Afternoon. NESAT will then traverse Northern Luzon, cutting across Southern Cagayan, Kalinga, Abra Tuesday evening...and exit Northern Luzon through Ilocos Norte by early Wednesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. NESAT is a strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Gradual strengthening will continue during the next couple of days...and NESAT could become a Typhoon later today.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 150 kilometers (80 nautical miles) from the center. NESAT is now an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers (270 nautical miles). Possible continued increase in its circulation size is likely as the system moves into the warm Philippine Sea in the next couple of days.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY EARLY MORNING:  Maintains its Westerly course across the warm Central Philippine Sea...upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon...about 386 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes, PH [2AM SEP 26: 15.2N 127.6 @ 150kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Turns WNW as it passes well to the north of Bicol...approaching the coast of Isabela & Northern Aurora...almost a Super Typhoon (Category 4)...about 178 km SE of Palanan Bay, Isabela, PH [2AM SEP 27: 16.5N 124.0E @ 220kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Weakens to a Category 1 typhoon as it traverses Northern the vicinity of Ilocos Provinces...about 46 km SSE of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte, PH [2AM SEP 28: 17.8 120.7E @ 150kph].

**Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that NESAT (PEDRING) will continue moving Westward and make landfall over Aurora Province instead...cutting across the Northern Part of Central Luzon...and exiting Benguet-La Union Area. This scenario may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge northeast of the typhoon will not weaken & extends westward.


ISABELA:  along Divilacan-Palanan Bay Area...[ETA: 2:00 PM Local Time, Tuesday].
SOUTHERN CAGAYAN:  Near to the south Tuguegarao City [ETA: 7:00-8:00 PM Tuesday].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


NESAT's (PEDRING) circulation continues to expand & become better organized w/ very deep rainband-convection forming near its center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (Philippine Sea)...possible "Eye" forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (100-130 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas. however its westernmost pprtion has started to spread across Bicol Region & Eastern Visayas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 150 mm (high) along areas near the center of NESAT (PEDRING). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).


Tropical Depression 21W (UNNAMED) has formed over the South China Sea. The system was located about 349 km ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam (16.0N 113.2E)...maximum sustained winds of 55 kph...gusting up to 75 kph...drifting slowly NE-ward.
To view the latest information on this storm kindly click this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: portions of MINDANAO & VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS NESAT (PEDRING)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2011.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop




>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS NESAT (PEDRING)...go visit our website @:


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