Friday, September 30, 2011

Typhoon NESAT [PEDRING] - Update #023


for Friday, 30 September 2011 [8:45 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Sep 28 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NESAT (PEDRING).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Fri 30 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #026/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
NESAT (PEDRING) downgraded to a Tropical Storm while over the Gulf of Tonkin...prepares to make landfall over Northern Vietnam.

Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam & Laos should closely monitor the progress of NESAT (PEDRING).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 8:00 AM PhT Fri September 30 2011
Location of Center: 20.8º N Lat 107.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 178 km ESE of Hanoi, Vietnam
Distance 2: 209 km NW of Hainan Island
Distance 3: 316 km WSW of Zhanjiang, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: Northern Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): 20-25 mm/hr (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM HKT Fri Sep 30


NESAT (PEDRING) will continue to move generally west-northwest to northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of the storm will make its final landfall over Northern Vietnam today, passing north of Hanoi City tonight. NESAT will quickly dissipate along Northern Vietnam on Saturday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 110 km/hr (60 knots) with higher gusts. NESAT is a strong Tropical Storm on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. NESAT will weaken to a Tropical Depression Saturday due to the topographical effects of Northern Vietnam.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles). NESAT remains a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 835 kilometers (450 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 36-hour forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING:  Over Northern Vietnam, near Hanoi...barely a Tropical Storm [2AM OCT 01: 21.3N 106.4E @ 75kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON:  Dissipated along Northern Vietnam...just an area of low pressure [2PM OCT 01: 21.9N 105.4E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


NESAT's (PEDRING) circulation has shrunk as it nears Northern Vietnam, but still a large cyclone. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

WEAKENING CLOUD-FILLED EYE - along the shores of Northern Vietnam. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - spreading and affecting Coastal areas of Northern Vietnam & the Gulf of Tonkin. Typhoon Conditions with Near-Typhoon Force Winds (100-117 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading and affecting Western Hainan, rest of Northern Vietnam, & coastal areas of SW Guangdong. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-99 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Central Vietnam, Eastern Laos, & SW Guangdong. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 151 to 400 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of NESAT (PEDRING). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Southwestern Guangdong & Northern Vietnam. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Vietnam, Southern China & Western Luzon.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS NESAT (PEDRING)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2011.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1.5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop



>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TY NESAT (PEDRING)...go visit our website @:


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