Friday, September 16, 2011

TS ROKE [ONYOK] - Update #13


for Friday, 16 September 2011 [12:30 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday Sep 16 2011):

Please be informed that beginning September 15 to 20 (Thu-Tue), T2K will be issuing irregular advisories as I am currently out for vacation. Kindly bear with me. Thank you ~ MVP.


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


11:00 PM PhT (06:00 GMT) Thu 15 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #017/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm ROKE (ONYOK) continues to slow down as it moves closer to the Southern Islands of Japan.

This system will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) & bring occasional rains w/ breezy conditions across the western portions of the Philippines.

Residents and visitors along the Okinawa, Ryukyus & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of ROKE (ONYOK).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Thu September 15 2011
Location of Center: 26.0º N Lat 130.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 111 km North of P. A. R.
Distance 2: 294 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 302 km SSE of Naje Is., Ryukyus
Distance 4: 920 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 1,078 km NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Ryukyus-Okinawa Area
CPA [ETA] to Okinawa: Saturday-Sunday
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 50 mm (Medium)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 945 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 PM PhT Thu Sep 15


ROKE (ONYOK) is expected to move generally west-northwest with further decrease on its forward speed during the next 24 hours...and will track more westerly slowly over the next 36 to 48 hours. Through 72 hours, ROKE will start to accelerate slightly west-southwestward. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will be approaching the Ryukyu Island Chain Friday and will traverse the southern shores of Okinawa on Saturday & Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. 18W is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Further strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days...and ROKE could be near typhoon intensity early next week.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY EVENING:  Maintain its strength as it tracks WNW slowly towards the Ryukyus...about 169 km East of Okinawa, Japan [8PM SEP 16: 26.6N 129.5 @ 65kph].
SATURDAY EVENING:  Slowly intensifying as it approaches Okinawa Island...turns Westward...about 80 km East of Okinawa City [8PM SEP 17: 26.4N 128.6E @ 75kph].
SUNDAY EVENING:  Drifting WSW-ward while traversing the southern shores of Okinawa...continues gaining intensity...about 83 km SW of Naha International Airport [8PM SEP 18: 25.6N 127.2E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ROKE's (ONYOK) circulation remains very large but with less convection near its center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Ryukyus, Okinawa, North Philippine Sea & the Iwo To-Bonin-Chichi Jima Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 120 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 5 to 50 mm (low to medium) along areas near the center of ROKE (ONYOK). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).


Tropical Storm SONCA (19W) upgraded from TD - has been tracking NNW during the past 6 hours. The system was located about 217 km SSW of Guam, CNMI (23.1N 154.6E)...maximum sustained winds of 65 kph...gusting up to 85 kph...moving NNW @ 17 kph towards the open seas of the Western Pacific. Watch out for a separate page on this system soon. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains & squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, SOUTHWESTERN LUZON, MINDORO, PALAWAN, NORTHWESTERN VISAYAS & CALAMIAN GROUP. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS ROKE (ONYOK)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1811.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS ROKE (ONYOK)...go visit our website @:


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