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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 023
8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Fri 02 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The large core of Typhoon TALAS (15W) approaching the southern coast of Japan particulartly Shikoku. Rainbands w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds lashing the southern coastal areas of Honshu, Shikoku & Honshu.
Residents and visitors along Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION 2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
Time/Date: 8:00 AM PhT Fri September 02 2011
Location of Center: 30.3º N Lat 134.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 380 km SSE of Kochi, Japan
Distance 2: 381 km SSW of Tanabe, Japan
Distance 3: 435 km South of Wakayama, Japan
Distance 4: 498 km SSE of Okayama, Japan
Distance 5: 562 km SSW of Kyoto, Japan
Distance 6: 508 km SSE of Hiroshima, Japan
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 175 kph (95 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Shikoku-Western Honshu Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 250 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 965 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1,205 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 40 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 9 AM JST Fri Sep 02
TALAS (15W) is expected to continue moving NNW-ward during the next 24 hours, with a turn towards the North through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the large core of the typhoon will make landfall in Southern Shikoku, Japan tonight and then move across Western Honshu Saturday. It will be along the central part of Japan Sea by Sunday. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
SATURDAY MORNING: Moving Northward across Western Honshu...downgraded into a Tropical Storm (TS)...about 57 km WSW of Okayama, Japan [8AM SEP 03: 34.4N 133.4E @ 100kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Over the Sea of Japan...accelerating Northward...about 535 km North of Okayama, Japan [8AM SEP 04: 39.5N 134.3E @ 95kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) remain near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. TALAS will remain at Category 1 threshold prior in making landfall in Shikoku, Japan. Weakening of TALAS into a Tropical Storm is expected after it reaches the coast of Southeastern Shikoku.
Near-Typhoon Force Winds (100 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 390 kilometers (210 nautical miles). TALAS remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,205 kilometers (650 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
TALAS' (15W) large radial circulation remains intact with a very large center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
LARGE EYE-LIKE CENTER - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Shikoku, Kyushu & Honshu. Tropical Storm to Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Tropical Storm to Near-Typhoon Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the whole of Japan. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 205 to 310 mm (high) along areas near the center of TALAS (15W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Shikoku, Southern Honshu & Southern Kyushu. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Japan. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to cloudy skies with a passing showers, rains or squalls w/ thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) FRI 02 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 29.5N 135.5E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 15W HAS TURNED TOWARD THE KANSAI REGION OF
JAPAN WHILE MAINTAINING A STEADY INTENSITY. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS TOPS WARMING AROUND AN EXPANSIVE AND NEARLY CLOUD-FREE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE OUTERMOST RAINBANDS ARE
ALREADY PELTING THE KYUSHU AND WAKAYAMA PREFECTURES. A 011135Z ASCAT
IMAGE CAPTURES THE EXPANSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, SHOWING GALE
FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OVER 200 NM OUTWARDS IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE 011200Z SOUNDING FROM SHIONOMISAKI (WAKAYAMA
PENINSULA, WMO 47778) CONFIRMS 50 KNOT WINDS BEGIN AT 1K FT. CURRENT
SURFACE REPORTS FROM SHIKOKU INDICATE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
SURFACE REPORTS, UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM SHIONOMISAKI AND HAMAMATSU
AIR BASE, AND THE MOST RECENT ASCAT IMAGE. THE EXPANSIVE AND
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LLCC ARE RESULTING IN DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT
ARE BELOW ACTUAL INTENSITY. THE SIZE OF THE LLCC AND THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE HAVE PREVENTED CONVECTION FROM CONSOLIDATING OVER THE
SYSTEM. THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, A 011620ZZ AMSRE, SHOWS
AN ELONGATED, RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE LLCC WITH A 150 NM DIAMETER.
MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL BANDING
AROUND THE LLCC IS THICK AND CONTIGUOUS, THE CONVECTION IS SHALLOW.
THE 011200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS STILL REVEALS A
HIGH ALTITUDE CYCLONE ABOVE THE SYSTEM, AND THE LATEST AMSUB RADIAL
CROSS SECTION REVEALS THE MID-LEVEL ANOMALY HAS BEGUN TO COOL AND
SINK. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS UNDER 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) HAS INCREASED TO 28 DEGREES. SST IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 DEGREES AS THE STORM CROSSES THE KUROSHIO
CURRENT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
THAT A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS BECOME WELL-ESTABLISHED ON THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT AS THE STORM TAPS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE TSUSHIMA REGION. TS 15W IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANK OF A BLOCKING RIDGE THAT HAS SET UP OVER WESTPAC. THE
OMEGA BLOCK IS DRIVING TS 15W TOWARDS THE KANSAI REGION OF HONSHU.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE THROUGH LANDFALL AND THE
STORM MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF SHIKOKU AND THE WAKAYAMA PREFECTURE WEAKEN THE STORM. THE
BLOCK WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM POLEWARD AND INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN NEAR
TAU 36, WHERE IT WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO
RE-GROUP. BY TAU 48, HOWEVER, TS 15W WILL ENCOUNTER A SHARP INCREASE
IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, A SHARP DROP IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND
INTERACTION WITH A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY IN A VERY BRIEF PERIOD. TS
15W WILL THEN GO THROUGH A RAPID EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS
(XTT) WHILE ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST. THICKNESS PROGS ARE
BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE IN INDICATING COMPLETION OF XTT WELL BEFORE
TAU 72. THE UPSTREAM ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENCROACHING SHORT
WAVE FORESHADOWS THAT THE XTT PROCESS WILL BE VIGOROUS, AND TS 15W
WILL TRANSITION INTO AN EXPANSIVE, GALE FORCE MID-LATITUDE LOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, BUT MOST VORTEX
TRACKERS ARE STILL FOLLOWING THE 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS AND STEERING
THE SYSTEM TOO FAR WEST. THE ONLY DYNAMIC MODEL THAT IS HANDLING THE
XTT PROCESS CAPABLY IS ECMWF. JTWC FORECAST STAYS RIGHT OF, AND
FASTER THAN CONSENSUS...more info)
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
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