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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday Sep 26 2011):
Currently issuing 3-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NESAT (PEDRING).
NESAT (PEDRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON NESAT [PEDRING/20W/1117]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013
12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Tue 27 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #013/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The core of Typhoon NESAT (PEDRING) approaching the shores of Northern Aurora & Isabela.
Projected Landfall Area (PLA): Northern Aurora...with possible entry point or touchdown just north of Casiguran between 4-5 AM local time today.
Residents and visitors along Luzon particularly Northern Bicol, Northern Quezon, Aurora, Quirino & Isabela should closely monitor the progress of NESAT (PEDRING).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 AM PhT Tue September 27 2011
Location of Eye: 16.2º N Lat 123.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 85 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 2: 150 km SE of Cauayan, Isabela
Distance 3: 146 km ENE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 4: 161 km SE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 5: 218 km ENE of Cabanatuan City
Distance 6: 201 km SE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 7: 246 km ESE of Baguio City
Distance 8: 233 km North of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 9: 291 km NNW of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 10: 281 km ESE of San Fernando City
Distance 11: 262 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Northern Aurora-Isabela Area
CPA [ETA] to Aurora: Tuesday Morning [4-5am PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 905 km (490 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 AM PhT Tue Sep 27
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
NESAT (PEDRING) is expected to maintain its general WNW track troughout the forecast period with little change on its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will pass more or less 250 km to the north of Bicol Region tonight...and make landfall over Northern Aurora or just north of Casiguran by early Tuesday morning. NESAT will then cross the southern part of Northern Luzon - passing along Northern Quirino-Southern Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet-Ifugao...and exit through La Union late Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday through Thursday, NESAT will be over the West Philippine Sea, leaving the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves towards Hainan Island, Southern China.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 150 km/hr (80 knots) with higher gusts. NESAT is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some slight strengthening is still likely before it makes landfall over Northern Aurora. This system will gradually weaken just below typhoon strength as it traverses Luzon Tuesday...and will regain typhoon status upon moving back to sea by Wednesday.
Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 240 kilometers (130 nautical miles). NESAT is now a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 905 kilometers (490 nautical miles). Meanwhile, land obsevation from the Typhoon2000.com Automated Weather Station in Naga City has been observing wind gust of 40 kph blowing from the WSW and barometer readings of 998.0 millibars. The 24-hr Rainfall Accumulation over the station is now at 205.5 mm, with average rain rate of 3 to 30 mm/hr (very light to moderate).
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
TUESDAY EVENING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS), after crossing the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon...just along the coast of La Union...about 115 km WSW of San Fernando, La Union [8PM SEP 27: 17.2N 119.4E @ 110kph].
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Regains Typhoon status as it moves across the West Philippine Sea, moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 560 km WNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8PM SEP 28: 18.4N 115.3E @ 130kph].
THURSDAY EVENING: Gaining strength slightly as it approaches the northern part of Hainan Island, along the coast of Southern China...about 138 km ESE of Qionghai, Hainan [8PM SEP 29: 19.4 111.8E @ 140kph].
NESAT's (PEDRING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
AURORA: About 31 km NE of Casiguran...[ETA: 4:00-5:00 AM Local Time, Today].
SOUTHERN ISABELA-QUIRINO: Moving across the area [ETA: 5:00-6:00 AM Today].
BAGUIO CITY: Passing about 57 km NNE of the "City of Pines" [ETA: 3:00-4:00 PM Today].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NESAT's (PEDRING) circulation remains very large w/ very deep rainband-convection along its bands, especially the outer bands. A large eye has started to be seen on satellite imageries. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Philippine Sea)...but will reach the Northern part of Aurora befpre sunrise today. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas...but is affecting and spreading across expected to reach the shores of Northern Aurora in the next few hours. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Northern Coast of Bicol Region & Polillo Island, Eastern Cagayan, Isabela, & Aurora. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the whole of Luzon including Mindoro, Calamian Group, and Northern Visayas including Samar. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 250 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 251 to 400 mm (high) along areas near the center of NESAT (PEDRING). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Eastern & Northern Bicol Region & Eastern Luzon. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Luzon & Visayas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
Tropical Storm HAITANG (21W) moving very slowly over the South China Sea, near Hainan. The system was located about 242 km SSE of Hainan Island (16.7N 111.2E)...maximum sustained winds of 65 kph...gusting up to 85 kph...moving WSW @ 04 kph. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click this link.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: REST OF VISAYAS & PALAWAN. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: ILOCOS PROVINCES, ABRA, APAYAO, LA UNION, BENGUET, PANGASINAN, ZAMBALES, TARLAC, PAMPNGA, BULACAN, METRO MANILA, RIZAL, QUEZON, POLILLO, BATAAN, CAMARINES PROVINCES, & CATANDUANES.
The above areas will continue to experience stormy weather tonight until tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and 100-185 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
External Links for TY NESAT (PEDRING)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2011.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TYPHOON2000 CURRENT STORMTRACK:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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