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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Sep 24 2011):
Currently issuing 3-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NESAT (PEDRING).
NESAT (PEDRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON NESAT [PEDRING/20W/1117]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 011
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Mon 26 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #011/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon NESAT (PEDRING) has maintain its WNW track and strength...Outer rainbands now covering the whole of Luzon including Marinduque, Northern Visayas, Bicol & Masbate.
Projected Landfall Area (PLA): Aurora on Tuesday morning...with possible entry point or touchdown near Casiguran.
Residents and visitors along Luzon particularly Northern Bicol, Northern Quezon, Aurora & Isabela should closely monitor the progress of NESAT (PEDRING).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Mon September 26 2011
Location of Eye: 15.5º N Lat 125.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 189 km NNE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 247 km NNE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 312 km NNE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 292 km NE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 5: 302 km NE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 6: 341 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 387 km ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 8: 450 km ENE of Metro Manila
Distance 9: 502 km ESE of Baguio City
Distance 10: 405 km ESE of Cauayan, Isabela
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 24 kph (13 kts)
CPA [ETA] to Aurora: Tuesday Morning [7-9am PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-20 mm/hr (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 905 km (490 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 26 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PhT Mon Sep 26
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
NESAT (PEDRING) is expected to maintain its general WNW track troughout the forecast period with little change in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of the typhoon will pass more or less 300 km to the north of Bicol Region late this afternoon or evening...and will make landfall over Aurora Province - in the vicinity Casiguran Tuesday morning. NESAT will then cross the northern part of Central Luzon - moving across Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet...and exit the area through La Union Tuesday evening. By Wednesday through Thursday, NESAT will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on its way towards Hainan Island, Southern China.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 150 km/hr (80 knots) with higher gusts. NESAT is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Slight strengthening will continue during the 24 hours...and NESAT could reach Category 3 strength before it makes landfall Tuesday. This system will gradually weaken just below typhoon strength as it traverses Luzon Tuesday...and will regain typhoon status upon moving back to sea by Wednesday. Meanwhile, land observations from the Typhoon2000.com Automated Weather Station in Naga City has already recorded wind gust of 40 kph blowing from the West at 9:24 AM local time and barometer readings of 999.3 millibars. The Rainfall Accumulation over the station since 12AM is now at 100.1 mm, with rain rate of 13-23mm/hr.
Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 240 kilometers (130 nautical miles). NESAT is now a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 905 kilometers (490 nautical miles).
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
TUESDAY MORNING: Intensifies to a Category 3 Typhoon as it makes landfall over Aurora...about 15 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora [8AM SEP 27: 16.3N 122.2 @ 185kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Regains Typhoon status as it moves out into the West Philippine Sea...about 265 km West of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [8AM SEP 28: 17.5N 117.9E @ 130kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Gaining strength slightly as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) towards Southern China...about 405 km ESE of Hainan Island, Southern China [8AM SEP 29: 18.6 114.4E @ 140kph].
NESAT's (PEDRING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
AURORA: About 15 km NE of Casiguran...[ETA: 7:00-8:00 AM Local Time, Tuesday].
QUIRINO: Moving across the central part of the province [ETA: 8:00-9:00 AM Tuesday].
BAGUIO CITY: Passing very close to the north (about 5-10km) [ETA: 4:00-5:00 PM Tuesday].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NESAT's (PEDRING) circulation is now very large w/ very deep rainband-convection along its rainbands. A large eye has started to be seen on satellite imageries. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
LARGE CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas...but is expected to reach the shores of Aurora around midnight or late tonight. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the coastal areas of Northern Bicol Region & Polillo Island...and will approach the coastal areas of Northern Quezon, Aurora & Isabela late this afternoon or tonight. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the whole of Luzon including Mindoro, Calamian Group, and Northern Visayas & Samar. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (high) along areas near the center of NESAT (PEDRING). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Eastern & Northern Bicol Region & Eastern Luzon. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Luzon & Visayas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
Tropical Storm HAITANG (21W) moving very slowly over the South China Sea, near Hainan. The system was located about 242 km SSE of Hainan Island (16.7N 111.2E)...maximum sustained winds of 65 kph...gusting up to 85 kph...moving WSW @ 04 kph. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click this link.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: REST OF VISAYAS & PALAWAN. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: CATANDUANES, SORSOGON, ALBAY, BURIAS ISLAND, CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, QUEZON, POLILLO ISLAND, AURORA, QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, ISABELA, IFUGAO, AND CAGAYAN.
The above areas will continue to experience stormy weather today until tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: METRO MANILA, MASBATE, TICAO ISLAND, NORTHERN SAMAR, MARINDUQUE, BATANGAS, LAGUNA, RIZAL, CAVITE, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, BATAAN, ZAMBALES, PANGASINAN, LA UNION, BENGUET, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, ILOCOS SUR, ILOCOS NORTE, ABRA, KALINGA, APAYAO, CALAYAN, AND BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
External Links for TY NESAT (PEDRING)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2011.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TYPHOON2000 CURRENT STORMTRACK:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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