for Sunday, 04 September 2011 [7:15 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 031
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Sun 04 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm TALAS (15W) moving NNE across the Sea of Japan.
Residents and visitors along Eastern Russia should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun September 04 2011
Location of Center: 36.7º N Lat 134.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 224 km NNE of Okayama, Japan
Distance 2: 212 km NW of Kyoto, Japan
Distance 3: 738 km SSE of Vladivostok, Russia
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 110 kph (60 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Sea Of Japan-Eastern Russia
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 994 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 1,295 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM JST Sun Sep 04
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
TALAS (15W) is expected to accelerate towards the NNE to Northward during the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will move across the Sea of Japan through Monday...and approach the coast of Eastern Russia late Monday or early Tuesday. TALAS will become an Extratropical Low prior in making landfall over Eastern Russia. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Just along the northern part of the Sea of Japan, approaching the coast of Eastern Russia...about 278 km ESE of Vladivostok, Russia [5PM SEP 05: 41.8N 134.8E @ 85kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes an Extratropical Cyclone while moving inland across Eastern Russia...about 235 km ENE of Vladivostok, Russia [2PM SEP 06: 44.3N 134.3E @ --kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) are near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.
TALAS remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,295 kilometers (700 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
TALAS' (15W) large circulation remains fragmented as it moves across the Sea of Japan. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DECAYING RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the NW portions of Honshu & the Sea of Japan. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 105 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of TALAS (15W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SUN 04 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 37.0N 134.5E.
*N/A..more info)
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
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RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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