for Wednesday, 07 September 2011 [11:55 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Sep 07 2011):
Now initiating the 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on KULAP (17W).
KULAP (17W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 60 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM KULAP [17W/1114]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
11:00 PM PhT (15:00 GMT) Wed 07 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #002/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm KULAP (17W) rapidly intensifies as it moves NNE...may threaten Okinawa & Ryukyus this weekend.
Residents and visitors along Okinawa, Ryukyus & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of KULAP (17W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Wed September 07 2011
Location of Center: 22.8º N Lat 135.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 92 km East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 593 km WSW of Iwo To
Distance 3: 916 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 1,458 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 1,473 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
CPA [ETA] to Okinawa: Saturday [6-8pm HKT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 450 mm (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 445 km [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9 PM JST Wed Sep 07
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
KULAP (17W) is expected to maintain its slow northerly or NNW drift during the next 12 hours, before assuming a "straight-runner", WNW track through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the storm shall enter for just a short while - the northeasternmost portion of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Thursday afternoon or evening.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. KULAP is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...and KULAP could become a Typhoon late Friday.
Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center. KULAP is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles).
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:
THURSDAY MORNING: Intensfying further while moving north to north-northward slowly...about 863 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [8AM SEP 08: 23.5N 135.7 @ 95kph]. THURSDAY EVENING: Maintains its intensification process, turns gradually WNW-ward...about 714 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [8PM SEP 08: 24.6N 134.6E @ 100kph]. FRIDAY MORNING: Almost a typhoon as it maintain its WNW track...about 559 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [8AM SEP 09: 25.2N 133.2E @ 110kph]. FRIDAY EVENING: Becomes a typhoon as it moves toward Okinawa-Ryukyu Area...about 342 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [8PM SEP 09: 26.1N 131.2E @ 120kph].
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
KULAP's (17W) circulation has started to gradually improved off the NE-most Philippine Sea.... Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 205 to 520 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of KULAP. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 PM (12 GMT) WED 07 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 22.5N 135.9E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL, DENSE, AND TIGHTLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM THAT IS
CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). INFRARED IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS COOLING TOPS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A LACK OF LOW LEVEL BANDING
OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, THERE IS A TREND TOWARDS TIGHTER
CONSOLIDATION AROUND THE LLCC. A 37GHZ 070907Z SSMIS IMAGE CAPTURES
THE TIGHT WRAP OF THE SYSTEM AT THE GRADIENT LEVEL. THE SCATTERING
FREQUENCIES ALSO ILLUMINATE THE INTENSITY AND DEPTH OF CONVECTION
OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER. A 062356Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE CONFIRMED THE
SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, DEPICTING WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS WITHIN 50
NM OF THE LLCC. SYSTEM DIAMETER IS ESTIMATED AT 200 NM. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS CUT
OFF AND TS 17W IS DEVELOPING RADIAL OUTFLOW, AN EARLY INDICATOR THAT
THE STORM MAY POSSIBLY DEVELOP ANNULAR TRAITS. THE 070000Z PGTW
UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD EXHAUST OVER THE LLCC,
AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS REVEAL INCREASING SATURATION OF
THE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THE STORM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
DECREASED TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
REGION ARE 28 TO 29 DEGREES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED
ON THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURES FROM THE PAST SIX HOURS AND A DVORAK
ASSESSMENT OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW. THE STEERING FORCE FOR TS 17W IS
AN ANTICYCLONE EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS PROVIDING A GENTLE NUDGE
POLEWARD...(more info)
>> KULAP, meaning: Rose. Name contributed by: Thailand.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS KULAP (17W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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