for Wednesday, 14 September 2011 [6:00 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Sep 14 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on ROKE (ONYOK).
ROKE (ONYOK) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 25 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM ROKE [ONYOK/18W/1115]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 010
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Wed 14 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #012/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm ROKE (ONYOK) tracking northwestward in the direction of the Southern Islands of Japan.
Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA) remains weak near 21.0N 124.6E or about 276 km ENE of Basco, Batanes...moving WNW-ward. The presence of these 2 systems will slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon & bring light occasional rains across the western sections of Luzon & Visayas through the weekend.
Residents and visitors along the Okinawa, Ryukyus & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of ROKE (ONYOK).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed September 14 2011
Location of Center: 25.1º N Lat 136.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 121 km East of P. A. R.
Distance 2: 515 km WNW of Iwo To
Distance 3: 855 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 1,542 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Ryukyus-Okinawa Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 320 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 665 km [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Wed Sep 14
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
ROKE (ONYOK) is expected to move generally west-northwest over the next 48 hours...bending more to the west through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will be approaching the Ryukyu Island Chain with decreasing forward speed on Friday & Saturday.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. 18W is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Further strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days...and ROKE could be near typhoon intensity by the weekend.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its strength and track towards the Ryukyus...about 529 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM SEP 15: 26.2N 133.1 @ 65kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Gaining strength as it moves closer to the Ryukyus...about 199 km SSE of Naje Island [2PM SEP 16: 27.0N 130.7E @ 85kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Bending more to the west as it slows down while approaching the Ryukyus & Okinawa Area...about 172 km ENE of Okinawa City [2PM SEP 17: 27.1N 129.4E @ 95kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
ROKE's (ONYOK) circulation remains sheared with most of the convective rainbands along the eastern & southern peripheries. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
EASTERN RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Iwo To, Bonin, & Chichi Jima. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 320 mm (high) along areas near the center of ROKE (ONYOK). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) has become better organized to the ENE of the Marianas as it moves northward...will likely develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours. The system was located about 1,277 km NE of Guam, CNMI (20.8N 154.0E)...maximum sustained winds of 30 kph. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential has been upgraded to MEDIUM (50%). To view the latest satellite image on this storm kindly click this link.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, light rains will be expected across the following affected areas: BICOL REGION, SOUTHWESTERN LUZON, MINDORO & CALAMIAN GROUP. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS ROKE (ONYOK)
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1811.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS ROKE (ONYOK)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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