for Friday, 09 September 2011 [6:15 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Sep 08 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on KULAP (NONOY).
KULAP (NONOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KULAP [NONOY/17W/1114]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Fri 09 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #007/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
KULAP (NONOY) downgraded to a Tropical Depression as it approaches the Ryukyus.
Residents and visitors along the Ryukyus & the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of KULAP (NONOY).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri September 09 2011
Location of Center: 27.6º N Lat 130.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 155 km SE of Naje Is., Japan
Distance 2: 330 km ENE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 446 km South of Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 4: 971 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 1,199 km NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Ryukyu Islands
CPA [ETA] to Naje: Today [11am-2pm HKT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 150 mm (Heavy)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 335 km [Small]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3 AM JST Fri Sep 09
36-HOUR FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
KULAP's (NONOY) general northwesterly motion is expected to continue during the next 36 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will pass over or very close to the Japanese Island of Naje off the Ryukyus later today...and move across the East China Sea Saturday.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. KULAP is just a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will eventually dissipate within 24 to 36 hours.
The following is the summary of the 36-hour forecast outlook on this system:
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to weaken...passing over the Ryukyus...about 45 km WNW of Naje Island [2PM SEP 09: 28.8N 129.4 @ 45kph]. SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving away from the Ryukyus...about 270 km NW of Naje Island [2AM SEP 10: 30.2N 127.7E @ 45kph]. SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Degenerated into an area of low pressure (Tropical Disturbance) as it approaches well to the south of Cheju Island...about 211 km South of the island [2PM SEP 10: 31.6N 126.6E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the 36-hour Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: THE WHOLE OF THE PHILIPPINES. Calm & light to moderate SE'ly to SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
KULAP's (NONOY) circulation somewhat disorganized - revealing a fully-exposed low-level circulation center with rain-cloud convection displaced hundreds of kilometers to the SSE. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
. DISPLACED RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Ryukyus. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 25 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 30 to 150 mm (medium to high) along areas near the center of KULAP. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Disturbance 91W (LPA) still consolidating to the NNE of Guam...likely to develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next day or two. The system was located about 745 km NNE of Guam, CNMI (19.5N 147.7E)...maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...barely moving. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential remains @ MEDIUM (50%). To view the latest satellite image on this storm kindly click this link.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) FRI 09 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 27.2N 131.4E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS INTACT BUT
FULLY EXPOSED AND FURTHER DETACHED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION, NOW BY
OVER 220 NM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A
081231Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 30-KT WIND BARBS ALONG THE EASTERN RIM OF
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 10 DEGREES
SOUTHEAST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF JAPAN.
TD 17W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER
WATER BY TAU 36 AS THE VWS REMAINS STRONG AND ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GFDN SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS...(more info)
>> KULAP, meaning: Rose. Name contributed by: Thailand.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS KULAP (NONOY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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