Saturday, September 24, 2011

TS 20W [UNNAMED] - Update #004


for Saturday, 24 September 2011 [6:41 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Sep 22 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS 20W.


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr


5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Sat 24 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #002/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The strong disturbance (LPA) over the Caroline Islands which became a Tropical Depression last night, is now Tropical Storm 20W (Unnamed)...currently moving WNW & will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon or tonight.

Meanwhile, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) remains active and continues to bring scattered to widespread rains & thunderstorms across most parts of the Philippines.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 20W (UNNAMED).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat September 24 2011
Location of Center: 14.1º N Lat 136.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 183 km East of P. A. R.
Distance 2: 534 km NNW of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 878 km WNW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 4: 1,325 km East of Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
CPA [ETA] to Isabela-Cagayan: Wednesday [2-8am PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 220 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) [N/A]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
JTWC TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Sat Sep 24


20W (UNNAMED) is expected to continue moving on a straight-WNW motion during the next 12 to 24 hours...bending more westward for the next two to three days. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will continue moving across the warm Philippine Sea...and will be nearing the northern coast of Bicol Region on Tuesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. 20W is a minimal Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued intensification trend is expected during the next couple of days...and 20W could become a Typhoon late Sunday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING:  Enters PAR as it bends westward across the Philippine Sea...nearing Typhoon intensity...about 972 km ENE of Catanduanes, PH [2AM SEP 25: 15.4N 133.2 @ 100kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING:  Turns more westward while over the Philippine Sea...becomes a Category 1 Typhoon...about 528 km ENE of Catanduanes, PH [2AM SEP 26: 15.7N 128.8E @ 140kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Becomes a Major Typhoon (Category 3) as it turns WNW slightly...approaching the East Coast of Northern Luzon...about 385 km East of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM SEP 27: 16.1 125.7E @ 185kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


20W's (UNNAMED) circulation continues to develop and grow in size as it tracks into the Philippine Sea. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Caroline Islands including Yap, Ulithi & Palau. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 220 mm (high) along areas near the center of 20W (Unnamed). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS 20W (Unnamed)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2011.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on LPA 98W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:


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