Sunday, September 25, 2011

Typhoon NESAT [PEDRING] - Update #009


for Sunday, 25 September 2011 [6:45 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Sep 24 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NESAT (PEDRING).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 25 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #008/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon NESAT (PEDRING) still gaining strength as it slows down during the past 6 hours. Philippine Storm Warning Signal #2 now up over Catanduanes.

Projected Landfall Area (PLA): Aurora by early Tuesday morning...with possible entry point between Baler & Casiguran.

Residents and visitors along Luzon particularly Northern Bicol, Northern Quezon, Aurora & Isabela should closely monitor the progress of NESAT (PEDRING).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun September 25 2011
Location of Eye: 14.7º N Lat 128.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 478 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 490 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 558 km ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 595 km ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 617 km ENE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 6: 716 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 742 km East of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 8: 818 km East of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 130 kph (70 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 160 kph (85 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 31 kph (17 kts)
Towards: Central & Northern Luzon
CPA [ETA] to Aurora: Tuesday Morning [4-6am PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 10-15 mm/hr (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PhT Sun Sep 25


NESAT (PEDRING) is expected to start moving WNW troughout the forecast period with a slight decrease on its forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of the typhoon will pass to the north of Bicol Region Monday afternoon...and will touchdown over Aurora Province in between Baler and Casiguran by Tuesday early morning. NESAT will then cross the northern part of Central Luzon on Tuesday morning - moving across Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet...and exit the area through La Union Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday afternoon, NESAT will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on its way towards Hainan Island, Southern China.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 130 km/hr (70 knots) with higher gusts. NESAT is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Gradual strengthening will continue during the next couple of days...and NESAT could be near-Super Typhoon strength before it makes landfall early Tuesday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 140 kilometers (75 nautical miles). NESAT remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers (300 nautical miles). Possible increase in its circulation size is likely as the system moves into the warm Philippine Sea in the next couple of days.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY AFTERNOON:  Intensifies to a Category 3 Typhoon as it passes to the north of Bicol Region...about 233 km NNE of Naga City, PH [2PM SEP 26: 15.4N 124.3 @ 205kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON:  Weakened temporarily to Category 1 as it traverses Luzon...just along the West Coast of La Union...about 24 km WNW of San Fernando, La Union [2PM SEP 27: 16.7N 120.1E @ 140kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:  Re-intensifies over the West Philippine Sea (aka. South China Sea)...exits PAR...about 460 km WNW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur, PH [2PM SEP 28: 18.2 116.1E @ 150kph].

**Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that NESAT (PEDRING) will continue moving Westward and make landfall over Northern Quezon & Southern Aurora instead...cutting across Central Luzon...and exiting along Pangasinan-Northern Zambales Area. This scenario may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge northeast of the typhoon will not weaken & extends westward.


AURORA:  Just to the NNE of Baler...[ETA: 4:00-6:00 AM Local Time, Tuesday].
QUIRINO:  Moving across the central part of the province [ETA: 6:00-8:00 AM Tuesday].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


NESAT's (PEDRING) circulation continues to improve w/ very deep rainband-convection with an eye forming over the center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Bicol Region & Samar. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 350 mm (high) along areas near the center of NESAT (PEDRING). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Eastern & Northern Bicol Region. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Luzon & Visayas.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).


Tropical Storm HAITANG (21W) upgraded from TD while over the South China Sea. The system was located about 253 km SE of Hainan Island (17.1N 112.1E)...maximum sustained winds of 65 kph...gusting up to 85 kph...moving NW @ 13 kph.
To view the latest information on this storm kindly click this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: portions of MINDANAO & VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
Now In Effect:

The above areas will continue to experience stormy weather beginning tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight or tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

External Links for TY NESAT (PEDRING)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2011.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop




>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS NESAT (PEDRING)...go visit our website @:


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