Thursday, September 15, 2011

TS ROKE [ONYOK] - Update #011


for Thursday, 15 September 2011 [7:45 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Sep 14 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on ROKE (ONYOK).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 25 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Thu 15 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #014/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm ROKE (ONYOK) quickly moving westward in the direction of the Southern Islands of Japan...likely to enhance the Southwest Monsoonal Flow across portions of Western Philippines...occasional rains expected.

Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA) ENE of Basco, Batanes becoming elongated & disorganized as it starts to become a part of the SW Monsoon.

Residents and visitors along the Okinawa, Ryukyus & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of ROKE (ONYOK).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu September 15 2011
Location of Center: 25.5º N Lat 132.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 56 km North of P. A. R.
Distance 2: 455 km SE of Naje Is., Ryukyus
Distance 3: 512 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 1,127 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 1,236 km NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: Ryukyus-Okinawa Area
CPA [ETA] to Okinawa: Saturday-Sunday
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 120 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 945 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Thu Sep 15


ROKE (ONYOK) is expected to move generally west-northwest with a gradual decrease on its forward speed during the next 24 hours...tracking more westerly over the next 36 to 48 hours. Through 72 hours, ROKE will drift very slowly west-southwestward. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will be approaching the Ryukyu Island Chain Friday and will be in the vicinity of Okinawa on Saturday & Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. 18W is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Further strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days...and ROKE could be near typhoon intensity through the weekend.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING:  Gaining strength as it tracks WNW-ward towards the Ryukyus...about 233 km ENE of Okinawa, Japan [2AM SEP 16: 26.9N 130.1 @ 75kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING:  Continues to intensify as it approaches Okinawa Island...turns Westward...about 104 km NE of Okinawa City [2AM SEP 17: 27.1N 128.6E @ 85kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING:  Drifting WSW-ward while passing over Okinawa...approaching typhoon intensity...about 20 km WNW of Kadena Air Base [2AM SEP 18: 26.4N 127.6E @ 95kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ROKE's (ONYOK) circulation has become large and much improved as it quickly moves closer to the Southern Islands of Japan. Most of its convective rainbands has started to build near its center, with peripheral outer rainbands located to its south. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the North Philippine Sea & the Iwo To-Bonin-Chichi Jima Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 400 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 26 to 120 mm (low to high) along areas near the center of ROKE (ONYOK). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).


Tropical Depression 19W (UNNAMED) now a newly-developed Tropical Cyclone positioned to the ENE of the Marianas. The system was located about 1,277 km NE of Guam, CNMI (22.2N 154.2E)...maximum sustained winds of 55 kph...gusting up to 75 kph...moving Northward @ 20 kph towards the open seas of the Western Pacific. Watch out for a separate page on this system later today. To view the latest satellite image on this storm kindly click this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains & squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: BICOL REGION, SOUTHWESTERN LUZON, MINDORO, PALAWAN, NORTHWESTERN VISAYAS & CALAMIAN GROUP. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS ROKE (ONYOK)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1811.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS ROKE (ONYOK)...go visit our website @:


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