Thursday, September 29, 2011

Typhoon NALGAE [QUIEL] - Update #002


for Wednesday, 28 September 2011 [12:55 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Sep 28 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NALGAE (QUIEL).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Thu 29 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #008/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
NALGAE (a Korean word for "wing") (QUIEL) rapidly strengthened into a Category 1 Typhoon...remains small-to-average sized system... Forecast Projection of all Asian agencies show a passage across the shores of Cagayan & Ilocos Norte on Sunday Oct 2nd.

Projected Landfall Area (PLA): Northern Cagayan...passing over Aparri at approx 5-6 AM local time Sunday.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of NALGAE (QUIEL).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Thu September 29 2011
Location of Eye: 18.3º N Lat 133.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 1230 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 1232 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 1245 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 1250 km ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 1362 km East of Laoag City
Distance 6: 1388 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: WSW-West @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Extreme Northern Luzon
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-20 mm/hr (Light-Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 390 km (210 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PhT Thu Sep 29


NALGAE (QUIEL) will move generally westward (known in meteorology as a "Straight-Runner") throughout the forecast period, with little change in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will traverse the shores of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte on Sunday, Oct 02.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours...and NALGAE could become a Category 2 Typhoon on Friday. This cyclone is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 30 kilometers (15 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers (90 nautical miles). NALGAE is a small to average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 390 kilometers (210 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY MORNING:  Upgraded to a Category 2 Typhoon as it moves west across the North Philippine Sea [8AM SEP 30: 18.3N 129.9E @ 160kph].
SATURDAY MORNING:  Intensifying slightly as it approaches the coast of Northern Cagayan [8AM OCT 01: 18.5N 125.5E @ 165kph].
SUNDAY MORNING:  Traversing the shores of Extreme Northern Luzon particularly Coastal areas of Northern Cagayan-Ilocos Norte...about 32 km West of Aparri, Cagayan [8AM OCT 02: 18.4N 121.3E @ 160kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


NALGAE's (QUIEL's) compact circulation has slightly increased in size as it barrels WSW to Westward across the North Philippine Sea. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

SMALL, CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (West Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of NALGAE (QUIEL). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY NALGAE (QUIEL)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2211.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop




>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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