for Monday, 12 September 2011 [6:43 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday Sep 11 2011):
Now initiating 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 18W (UNNAMED).
18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Mon 12 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #002/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The large Tropical Disturbance off the Northeastern Philippine Sea has strengthened into Tropical Depression 18W (Unnamed)...almost stationary near the NE border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). This system will enter PAR later today.
Residents and visitors along the Okinawa, Ryukyus & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of 18W (Unnamed).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon September 12 2011
Location of Center: 21.1º N Lat 135.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 83 km East of P. A. R.
Distance 2: 1,011 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 1,435 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 150 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Mon Sep 12
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
18W (UNNAMED) is expected to move west-northwestward during the next 48 hours...with a turn towards the northwest thereafter.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. 18W is a weak Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...and the depression should become a Tropical Storm (TS) on Tuesday.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens to a Tropical Storm as it enters PAR...about 751 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2AM SEP 13: 21.6N 132.9 @ 65kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Gaining more strength as it tracks WNW-ward across the Northern Philippine Sea...about 474 km SSE of Okinawa, Japan [2AM SEP 14: 22.6N 129.7E @ 85kph].
*Please be reminded that the 24-hour Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
18W's (Unnamed) circulation remains broad and still in the process of consolidating, with most of its rainbands restricted along the eastern periphery. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 25 mm (low rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 26 to 150 mm (low to high) along areas near the center of 18W. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue across the following affected areas: LUZON, BICOL & THE VISAYAS. Calm & light to moderate Southerly to SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) MON 12 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 21.1N 135.8E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 111658Z AMSR-E IMAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD BUT
DEFINED LLCC WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES FAIR OUTFLOW WITH
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST, HOWEVER, OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A TUTT CELL NEAR 22N 132E. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 25 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. SCATTEROMETER DATA GENERALLY
INDICATES CORE WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS WITH 25-30 KNOTS EXTENDING OUT
TO 300 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER (ALSO CONFIRMED BY A 11/12Z SHIP
REPORT NEAR 25N 134E INDICATING 28 KNOTS). WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
INCREASED BASED ON THE EXTENSIVE WIND FIELD INDICATED IN BOTH ASCAT
AND OCEANSAT DATA. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AMSR-E IMAGE
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE 11/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED SOUTH OF JAPAN WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS EXTENDING INTO THE RYUKYUS. THIS SUPPORTS A GENERALLY WESTWARD
TRACK, THEREFORE, THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF
TRACKER IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT SUSPECT BETWEEN
TAU 24-48 WITH A SHARP NORTHWARD TURN DIRECTLY INTO THE STR THEN A
MORE REALISTIC WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THEREAFTER. BASED ON THE
EARLY WESTWARD TRACK, THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS SHIFTED SOUTHWEST OF
OKINAWA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POLEWARD TURN ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR BUT ALSO INDICATES A WEAKENING
STEERING INFLUENCE AND LIKELY SLOW-DOWN. TD 18W IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEREFORE PEAK INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 55-60 KNOTS BY TAU 120...(more info)
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**NOT YET AVAILABLE**
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TD 18W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
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