for Saturday, 10 September 2011 [12:30 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Sep 08 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on KULAP (NONOY).
KULAP (NONOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KULAP [NONOY/17W/1114]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 010 **FINAL**
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Sat 10 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #012/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression KULAP (NONOY) nears its death as it moves closer to the Korean Peninsula...its remnants will bring rainy weather across the area.
*This is the last and final advisory on KULAP.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat September 10 2011
Location of Center: 31.2º N Lat 127.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 267 km SSE of Cheju Is., S.Korea
Distance 2: 307 km WSW of Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 3: 571 km East of Shanghai, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Cheju Island-Korea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 175 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 280 km [Small]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder Final TrackMap (for Public): 9 AM JST Sat Sep 10
24-HOUR FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
KULAP (NONOY) is expected to track north-northwestward during the next 12 hours...with a sharp northerly to north-northeasterly turn thereafter. On the forecast track, the remnants of the depression will pass over Cheju Island later tonight...and dissipate along the southern shores of South Korea.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. KULAP is a weak Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will eventually dissipate within 12 to 24 hours.
The following is the summary of the 24-hour forecast outlook on this system:
SATURDAY EVENING: Weakened into an area of low pressure (Tropical Disturbance) as it approaches Cheju Island...about 89 km to the south [8PM SEP 10: 32.7N 126.6 @ 35kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Dissipated along the shores of South Korea...about 113 km NNE of Cheju Island [8AM SEP 11: 34.5N 126.8E @ 30kph].
*Please be reminded that the 24-hour Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
KULAP's (NONOY) circulation currently dissipating w/ most of its raincloud-convection sheared to the north of the low-level center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
. DISSIPATING RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Cheju Island and the Southern portion of South Korea. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 105 to 180 mm (low to high) along areas near the center of KULAP. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
Tropical Disturbance 91W (LPA) still disorganized as it moves westward across the Western Pacific...will likely develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours. The system was located about 715 km NNW of Guam, CNMI (19.2N 141.9E)...maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...moving West @ 20 kph. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential is now HIGH (60%). To view the latest satellite image on this storm kindly click this link.
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: THE WHOLE OF THE PHILIPPINES. Calm & light to moderate SE'ly to SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SAT 10 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 31.2N 127.4E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF CHEJU-DO, KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) INDICATES THAT TD 17W HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE POSITIONED JUST TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTH KOREA. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS PARTIALLY-EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION
LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS IS
ADVECTING INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A 092306Z TRMM 37
GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME MORE
FRAGMENTED. THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) WITH MODERATE (20 KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS,
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD
INTO INCREASING VWS (30-50 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A JET OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA. TD 17W IS
FORECAST TO RE-CURVE NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE LOW-
LEVEL STR TOWARD SOUTH KOREA BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONI-
TORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION...(more info)
>> KULAP, meaning: Rose. Name contributed by: Thailand.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
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> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD KULAP (NONOY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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