for Thursday, 15 September 2011 [2:00 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Sep 14 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on ROKE (ONYOK).
ROKE (ONYOK) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM ROKE [ONYOK/18W/1115]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 012
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Thu 15 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #015/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm ROKE (ONYOK) has slowed its forward speed while maintaining its westerly track towards the Southern Islands of Japan.
This system will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) & bring occasional rains w/ breezy conditions across the western portions of the Philippines.
Residents and visitors along the Okinawa, Ryukyus & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of ROKE (ONYOK).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu September 15 2011
Location of Center: 25.6º N Lat 132.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 67 km North of P. A. R.
Distance 2: 404 km SSE of Naje Is., Ryukyus
Distance 3: 441 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 1,057 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 1,178 km NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Ryukyus-Okinawa Area
CPA [ETA] to Okinawa: Saturday-Sunday
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 100 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 945 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Thu Sep 15
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
ROKE (ONYOK) is expected to move generally west-northwest with further decrease on its forward speed during the next 24 hours...tracking more westerly over the next 36 to 48 hours. Through 72 hours, ROKE will drift very slowly west-southwestward. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will be approaching the Ryukyu Island Chain Friday and will be in the vicinity of Okinawa on Saturday & Sunday.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. 18W is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Further strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days...and ROKE could be near typhoon intensity early next week.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
FRIDAY MORNING: Maintain its strength as it tracks WNW-ward towards the Ryukyus...about 219 km East of Okinawa, Japan [8AM SEP 16: 26.4N 130.0 @ 65kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Slowly intensifying as it approaches Okinawa Island...turns Westward...about 61 km East of Okinawa City [8AM SEP 17: 26.6N 128.4E @ 75kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Drifting WSW-ward while traversing the island of Okinawa...continues gaining intensity...about 15 km SW of Naha International Airport [8AM SEP 18: 26.1N 127.6E @ 85kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
ROKE's (ONYOK) circulation has become large and much improved as it quickly moves closer to the Southern Islands of Japan. Most of its convective rainbands has started to build near its center, with peripheral outer rainbands located to its south. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the North Philippine Sea & the Iwo To-Bonin-Chichi Jima Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 350 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 26 to 100 mm (low to high) along areas near the center of ROKE (ONYOK). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
Tropical Depression 19W (UNNAMED) has been tracking NNE during the past 6 hours. The system was located about 217 km SSW of Guam, CNMI (22.1N 154.5E)...maximum sustained winds of 55 kph...gusting up to 75 kph...moving NNE @ 13 kph towards the open seas of the Western Pacific. Watch out for a separate page on this system later today. To view the latest satellite image on this storm kindly click this link.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains & squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: BICOL REGION, SOUTHWESTERN LUZON, MINDORO, PALAWAN, NORTHWESTERN VISAYAS & CALAMIAN GROUP. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS ROKE (ONYOK)
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1811.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS ROKE (ONYOK)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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