for Thursday, 29 September 2011 [7:14 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Sep 28 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NESAT (PEDRING).
NESAT (PEDRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON NESAT [PEDRING/20W/1117]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 020
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Thu 29 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #022/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The large Typhoon NESAT (PEDRING) is now nearing the shores of Hainan and Western Guangdong...landfall expected along Northern Hainan-Western Guangdong Area tonight...rainbands now lashing Hainan and Guangdong Province.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm NALGAE has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), now with a local name, "QUIEL". Watch out for the micro advisory page on QUIEL's separate page any moment from now.
Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Hainan should closely monitor the progress of NESAT (PEDRING).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu September 29 2011
Location of Eye: 19.3º N Lat 113.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 263 km East of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 2: 296 km ESE of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 3: 343 km SE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 4: 328 km SSW of Macau
Distance 5: 356 km SSW of Hong Kong
Distance 6: 809 km WNW of Laoag City, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Northern Hainan
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 280 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): 20-25 mm/hr (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1,110 km (600 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 33 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM HKT Thu Sep 29
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
NESAT (PEDRING) will continue to move generally west-northwest throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will make landfall over the northern portion of Hainan Island tonight...crossing the island for approximately 7 hours before entering the Gulf of Tonkin Friday early morning...and making its last landfall over Northern Vietnam Saturday. NESAT will eventually dissipate along Northern Vietnam-Laos Border on Sunday.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. NESAT is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. NESAT will still slightly re-intensify just before hitting Hainan this afternoon.
Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 150 kilometers (80 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles). NESAT remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,100 kilometers (600 nautical miles).
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the northwestern part of Hainan...making landfall [2AM SEP 30: 19.7N 109.6E @ 120kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Making its final landfall as a Tropical Storm (TS) over Northern Vietnam...94 km SSE of Hanoi City [2AM OCT 01: 20.3N 106.3E @ 95kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Laos-Northern Vietnam Border...dissipating over land...just a Tropical Depression...about 129 km WSW of Hanoi City [2AM OCT 02: 20.7 104.6E @ 55kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NESAT's (PEDRING) circulation remains unchanged...revealing the very large & strong rain bands, with loose and large center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (West Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - spreading and affecting Eastern Hainan. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - spreading and affecting the rest of Hainan, Coastal Guangdong & the Gulf of Tonkin. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Guangdong & North Central Vietnam. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 151 to 280 mm (high) along areas near the center of NESAT (PEDRING). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic). COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Southern China particularly the coast of Hainan & Southwestern Guangdong. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Vietnam, Southern China & Western Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY NESAT (PEDRING)
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2011.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY NESAT (PEDRING)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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