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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 021
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Thu 01 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon TALAS (15W) starts to move poleward toward Southern Japan.
Residents and visitors along Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION 2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu September 01 2011
Location of Center: 28.1º N Lat 136.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 628 km SSE of Tanabe, Japan
Distance 2: 653 km SSE of Kochi, Japan
Distance 3: 904 km SSW of Tokyo, Japan
Distance 4: 791 km SSW of Nagoya, Japan
Distance 5: 858 km ENE of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 175 kph (95 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Shikoku-Honshu Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 400 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 965 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1,205 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 39 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM JST Thu Sep 01
TALAS (15W) is expected to continue moving NNW-ward during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the large core of the typhoon will reach the Southeastern coast of Shikoku-Southern Honshu area Saturday morning and make landfall thereafter. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
FRIDAY MORNING: Continues tracking NNW slowly...about 411 km South of Tanabe, Japan [11AM SEP 02: 30.0N 135.5E @ 120kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS)...as it starts making landfall in between Shikoku and Honshu...about 73 km WSW of Tanabe, Japan [8AM SEP 03: 33.4N 134.7E @ 110kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) remain near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. TALAS shall be downgraded to a Tropical Storm as it reaches the coast of Southern Japan Saturday.
Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 185 kilometers (100 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 425 kilometers (230 nautical miles). TALAS remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,205 kilometers (650 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Cloudy skies with a passing occasiona showers, rains or squalls w/ thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA & WESTERN MINDORO. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
TALAS' (15W) radial circulation remains intact with a very large center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
LARGE EYE - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
LOOSE EYEWALL - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & moving across Southern Honsu, Shikoku and the SE Coast of Kyushu. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 205 to 400 mm (high) along areas near the center of TALAS (15W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Cloudy skies with a passing occasiona showers, rains or squalls w/ thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA & WESTERN MINDORO. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) THU 01 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 27.9N 136.4E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
SOUTH OF OSAKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 15W HAS SHOWN ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
COMPLETELY ENCIRCLED A BROAD AND RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 31156Z ASCAT IMAGE CAPTURES THE
EXPANSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, SHOWING GALES EXTENDING OUTWARDS FOR
OVER 200 NM IN ALL QUADRANTS. THROUGH THE LIFE OF THE STORM,
CONVECTION HAS NEVER MANAGED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER.
A 311929Z SSMI IMAGE EXPOSES THE THICK LOW LEVEL BANDING AROUND THE
LLCC, BUT THE SCATTERING FREQUENCIES INDICATE THE CONVECTION IS
SHALLOW. THE PGTW 311200Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS
THE CAUSE OF SUPPRESSED CONVECTION TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER
THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST AMSUB TEMPERATURE PROFILE CONFIRMS A CLEAR
MID-LEVEL WARM ANOMALY, BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE IS NOT ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ENOUGH DEPTH TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE CORE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED
ON A COMBINATION OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES, WHICH ARE LESS RELIABLE
THAN NORMAL BECAUSE OF THE DISPLACEMENT OF CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE
LLCC, AND ON THE ASCAT IMAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS TS
15W HAS DEVELOPED RADIAL OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM IS ONLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 27
DEGREES. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR 36N 145E. THE ANTICYCLONE IS PART OF A DEVELOPING
OMEGA BLOCK THAT IS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. THE POLAR FRONT JET
CAN NOW BE SEEN OVER EASTERN CHINA AS THE BLOCK SETS UP. THE JET IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL COME INTO PLAY IN THE
LATER TAUS...more info)
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
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