Monday, September 19, 2011

TS ROKE [ONYOK] - Update #20


for Monday, 19 September 2011 [8:46 AM PhT]

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+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
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:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Mon 19 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #030/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm ROKE (ONYOK) has weakened slightly as it stalls just to the east of Okinawa.

This system will continue to slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) & bring occasional showers or rains w/ breezy conditions across portions of Luzon & Visayas.

Residents and visitors along the Okinawa, Ryukyus & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of ROKE (ONYOK).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon September 19 2011
Location of Center: 26.3º N Lat 130.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 250 km East of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 260 km SSE of Naje Is., Ryukyus
Distance 3: 884 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 1,064 km NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: Southern Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 220 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 740 km [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Mon Sep 19


ROKE (ONYOK) is expected to resume moving slowly North to NNE-ward during the next 12 to 24 hours...and will recurve more to the northeast at a much faster pace over the next 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will pass just to the east of the Ryukyus Tuesday and approach the southern shores of Honshu with a brief landfall near Tokyo on Wednesday afternoon or evening.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. 18W is a Strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some fluctuations on its intensity is forecast during the next 24 hours...and ROKE will start transforming from a Tropical Cyclone to an Extratropical Cyclone between 48 to 72 hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 205 kilometers (110 nautical miles) from the center.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Re-intensifies as it begins drifting NNE away from the Ryukyus...about 125 km SE of Naje Island, Ryukyus [2AM SEP 20: 27.8N 130.7 @ 110kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Starts transforming into an Extratropical system...accelerating NE-ward toward Southern Honshu...about 286 km SSE of Kochi, Japan [2AM SEP 21: 31.1N 134.7E @ 100kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING:  Just along the East Coast of Northern Honshu...quickly accelerating NE-ward...nears Extratropical status...about 170 km ENE of Sendai, Japan [2AM SEP 22: 38.8 142.7E @ 95kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ROKE's (ONYOK) large circulation remains organized w/ heavy rainband convection along the northeastern periphery. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (Western Pacific)...possible "Eye" forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (100-130 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Okinawa & the Ryukyus. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across North Philippine Sea, East China Sea & Kyushu-Shikoku. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 220 mm (medium to high) along areas near the center of ROKE (ONYOK). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: Portions of LUZON & WESTERN VISAYAS including BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS ROKE (ONYOK)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1811.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS ROKE (ONYOK)...go visit our website @:


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