Saturday, September 17, 2011

TS ROKE [ONYOK] - Update #17


for Saturday, 17 September 2011 [5:50 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday Sep 16 2011):

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+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr

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:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Sat 17 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #024/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm ROKE (ONYOK) rapidly intensifies as it tracks the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

This system will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) & bring occasional shower or rains w/ breezy conditions across Western Luzon through the weekend.

Residents and visitors along the Okinawa, Ryukyus & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of ROKE (ONYOK).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat September 17 2011
Location of Center: 24.9º N Lat 130.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 299 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 413 km South of Naje Is., Ryukyus
Distance 3: 867 km East of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 973 km NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: SE @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Towards: Southern Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 250 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 925 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Sat Sep 17


ROKE (ONYOK) is expected to resume northward during the next 24 hours...and will recurve northeastward over the next 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will be passing well to the east of Okinawa Sunday and pass just to the east of the Ryukyus on Tuesday & Wednesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. 18W is a Strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...and ROKE could become a Typhoon on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 205 kilometers (110 nautical miles) from the center.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON:  Upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon as it tracks Northward slowly...exits PAR...about 233 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM SEP 18: 25.8N 130.0 @ 120kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON:  Continues to slowly intensify as it passes along Eastern Ryukyus...starts to recurve towards the NE...about 180 km SSE of Naje Island, Ryukyus [2PM SEP 19: 27.0N 130.1E @ 130kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON:  Weakens slightly as it moves faster NE-ward in the direction of Southern Honshu...starts to move away from the Ryukyus...about 170 km ESE of Naje Island [2PM SEP 20: 28.0 131.4E @ 120kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ROKE's (ONYOK) circulation has dramatically improved during the day. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Okinawa & the Ryukyus. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across North Philippine Sea, East China Sea & the coastal areas of Southern Kyushu. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 250 mm (medium to high) along areas near the center of ROKE (ONYOK). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: NORTHERN & CENTRAL LUZON...becoming more intense along the Western Sections. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS ROKE (ONYOK)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1811.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS ROKE (ONYOK)...go visit our website @:


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