for Saturday, 03 September 2011 [6:06 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday September 03 2011):
Now issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 16W (Unnamed).
16W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Sat 03 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #001/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The strong tropical disturbance to the ENE of the Northern Mariana Islands has strengthened into Tropical Depression 16W (UNNAMED)...drifting ENE across the open Western Pacific Ocean...not a threat to any land areas.
Sailors and Sea Navigators near its path should closely monitor the progress of 16W (UNNAMED).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat September 03 2011
Location of Center: 21.0º N Lat 149.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 473 km NE of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 2: 665 km SW of Marcus Is.
Distance 3: 931 km ESE of Iwo To
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: ENE @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Kuril Islands
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): --- km [N/A]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Sat Sep 03
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
16W (UNNAMED) is expected to move NNW during the next 24 hours...with a turn towards the North through 48 hours. 16W will remain over the open waters of the Western Pacific. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system. 
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensfying slightly as it moves NNE...about 545 km WSW of Marcus Island [2AM SEP 04: 22.3N 150.0E @ 55kph]. SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) while maintaining its NNE track...about 467 km West of Marcus Island [2PM SEP 04: 24.0N 150.4E @ 65kph]. MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Slightly gaining strength as it turns Northward...about 473 km WNW of Marcus Island [2AM SEP 05: 25.7N 150.7E @ 75kph]. MONDAY AFTERNOON: ...Continues to intensify over the open waters...about 573 NW of Marcus Island [2PM SEP 05: 27.4N 150.7E @ 85kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. 16W is a weak Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...and 16W is expected to become a Tropical Storm late Sunday.
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: MARIANA ISLANDS. Moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
16W's (UNNAMED) circulation continues to consolidate over the open sea. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Marcus Island. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SAT 03 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 20.6N 149.2E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH INCREASED DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST ARE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS LIMITING OUTFLOW ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. TD 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES THE STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TD 16W SHOULD STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER
WARM WATER AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKS THE SYSTEM TOO QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND DEPICTS UNCERTAINTY AS
THE SYSTEM IS STILL CONSOLIDATING. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A SLOWER
TRACK TO THE NORTH...(more info)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**NOT YET AVAILABLE
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
**NOT YET AVAILABLE
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 16W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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