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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday Sep 26 2011):
Currently issuing 3-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NESAT (PEDRING).
NESAT (PEDRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON NESAT [PEDRING/20W/1117]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 014
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tue 27 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #014/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The large core of Typhoon NESAT (PEDRING) has made landfall over Northern Aurora...now passing very close to Casiguran...Typhoon conditions across Quirino, Isabela, Aurora & Nueva Vizcaya...Storm Signal Number Three (03) now hoisted across the whole of Northern Luzon.
Most of the typhoon's outer rainbands are covering the whole of Luzon and portions of Northern Visayas.
Residents and visitors along Luzon particularly Aurora, Quirino & Isabela should closely monitor the progress of NESAT (PEDRING).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Tue September 27 2011
Location of Eye: 16.3º N Lat 122.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 15 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 2: 85 km SSE of Cauayan, Isabela
Distance 3: 85 km NE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 4: 109 km SSE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 5: 156 km NE of Cabanatuan City
Distance 6: 154 km SSE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 7: 171 km East of Baguio City
Distance 8: 256 km NNW of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 9: 319 km NNW of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 10: 205 km ESE of San Fernando City
Distance 11: 240 km SE of Vigan City
Distance 12: 223 km NNE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph (105 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph (130 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Northern Aurora-Isabela Area
CPA [ETA] to Quirino: This Morning [6-7am PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 905 km (490 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 34 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PhT Tue Sep 27
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
NESAT (PEDRING) remains a "Straight-Runner" where it is expected to maintain the general WNW motion troughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will cross Northern Luzon this morning...passing over Northern Aurora, Northern Quirino-Southern Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet-Ifugao...and exit through La Union late this afternoon. By Wednesday, NESAT will be over the West Philippine Sea, leaving the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...and making landfall over Hainan Island on Friday.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 195 km/hr (105 knots) with higher gusts. NESAT is now a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Gradual temporary weakening of the system is expected as the core traverses Northern Luzon today. NESAT will regain typhoon status while moving into the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea on Thursday.
Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 260 kilometers (140 nautical miles). NESAT is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 905 kilometers (490 nautical miles). At 2:40 AM (18:40 GMT) this morning, Typhoon2000.com Automated Weather Station in Naga City has recorded wind gust of 55 kph blowing from the SW. Meanwhile, the current barometer readings as of this update is at 997.7 millibars...while the 31-hr Rainfall Accumulation over the station is now at 209.8 mm.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the West Philippine Sea...just a Tropical Storm (TS) after crossing the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon...about 182 km WSW of Vigan, Ilocos Sur [2AM SEP 28: 17.4N 118.7E @ 110kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Regains Typhoon status as it moves across the West Philippine Sea, moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 424 km SSE of Hong Kong [2AM SEP 29: 18.5N 115.2E @ 130kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Gaining strength slightly as it approaches Hainan Island, along the coast of Southern China...about 105 km East of Northern Hainan [2AM SEP 30: 19.6 112.0E @ 140kph].
NESAT's (PEDRING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
AURORA: About 33 km NNE of Casiguran...[ETA: 4:00-5:00 AM Local Time, Today].
SOUTHERN ISABELA-QUIRINO: Moving across the area [ETA: 5:00-6:00 AM Today].
BAGUIO CITY: Passing about 57 km NNE of the "City of Pines" [ETA: 3:00-4:00 PM Today].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NESAT's (PEDRING) circulation remains very large w/ very deep rainband-convection along its bands, especially the outer bands. A large eye has started to be seen on satellite imageries. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Over Northern Aurora. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
LARGE EYEWALL - affecting and moving across Aurora, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya & Quirino Provinces. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the rest of Northern Luzon. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the whole of Luzon including Mindoro, Calamian Group, and Northern Visayas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 250 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 251 to 400 mm (high) along areas near the center of NESAT (PEDRING). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Eastern Luzon. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Luzon & Visayas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: REST OF VISAYAS & PALAWAN. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 60 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
In Effect: ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, ABRA, APAYAO, KALINGA, MT. PROVINCE, CAGAYAN, ISABELA, IFUGAO, BENGUET, LA UNION, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, AURORA, NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, PANGASINAN, & ZAMBALES.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: METRO MANILA, PAMPANGA, BULACAN, BATAAN, RIZAL, NORTHERN QUEZON, POLILLO IS., CAVITE, LAGUNA, BATANGAS, LUBANG IS., BABUYAN & CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.
The above areas will continue to experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and 100-185 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: BATANES, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, BURIAS IS., CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, ALBAY, SOUTHERN QUEZON, CATANDUANES, CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, & ROMBLON GROUP OF ISLANDS.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
External Links for TY NESAT (PEDRING)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2011.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TYPHOON2000 CURRENT STORMTRACK:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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