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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 022
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Thu 01 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon TALAS (15W) accelerating slightly NNW...threat to Southern Japan increases.
Residents and visitors along Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION 2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu September 01 2011
Location of Center: 28.6º N Lat 135.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 569 km South of Tanabe, Japan
Distance 2: 591 km SSE of Kochi, Japan
Distance 3: 595 km East of Naje Is., Japan
Distance 4: 626 km SSE of Wakayama, Japan
Distance 5: 740 km SSW of Nagoya, Japan
Distance 6: 866 km SSW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 175 kph (95 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Shikoku-Honshu Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 310 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 965 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1,205 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 40 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM JST Thu Sep 01
TALAS (15W) is expected to continue moving NNW-ward during the next 24 hours, with a turn towards the North through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the large core of the typhoon will make landfall in Southeastern Shikoku, Japan Saturday morning and then move across Western Honshu Saturday afternoon. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Maintaining its NNW track toward Southeastern Shikoku...about 201 km SSE of Kochi, Japan [5PM SEP 02: 31.9N 134.5E @ 120kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS)...as it moves across Western Honshu...about 56 km NNW of Okayama, Japan [2PM SEP 03: 35.2N 134.0E @ 95kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) remain near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. TALAS will remain at Category 1 threshold prior in making landfall in Shikoku, Japan. Weakening of TALAS into a Tropical Storm is expected after it reaches the coast of Southeastern Shikoku.
Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 185 kilometers (100 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 425 kilometers (230 nautical miles). TALAS remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,205 kilometers (650 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
TALAS' (15W) radial circulation remains intact with a very large center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
LARGE EYE - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
LOOSE EYEWALL - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the southern coastal areas of Shikoku, Kyushu & Honshu. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the rest of Kyushu, Shikoku, & Honshu (except the northern portions). Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 205 to 310 mm (high) along areas near the center of TALAS (15W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Shikoku, Southern Honshu & Southern Kyushu. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Japan. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Cloudy skies with a passing occasiona showers, rains or squalls w/ thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA & WESTERN MINDORO. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 45 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) THU 01 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 28.3N 135.8E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM SOUTH
OF KYOTO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
DEPICT A LARGE, NEARLY 110 NM DIAMETER, ANNULUS WITH MULTIPLE WEAK
CIRCULATIONS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT A CENTROID WITHIN THE
CENTER. FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO WRAP BROADLY
AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS DEPICTED IN A
010413Z AMSR-E IMAGE. A 010020Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES LIGHT WINDS
WITHIN THE ANNULUS AND A BELT OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS, ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING, DISPLACED ABOUT 120-180 NM FROM THE
CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO REVEAL AN UNUSUAL
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTER AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, ENHANCED
BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST SEA. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE BROAD LLCC. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS.
TS 15W HAS BEGUN TO TRACK INCREASINGLY POLEWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS
(POSITIONED NEAR KYOTO) IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
EXPECTED TO CREST THE STR AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 36 AS IT
TRACKS INTO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT,
PRIMARILY DUE TO PROBLEMS WITH THE GFS, UKMO AND ECMWF MODELS, NONE
OF WHICH MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE. GFS LOSES THE CENTER, INDICATES
QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AND THEN JUMPS TO ANOTHER SYSTEM BY TAU 120.
ECMWF TRACKS THE SYSTEM CYCLONICALLY INTO MANCHURIA, INTO THE JET.
UKMO TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW. THE
01/00Z ECMWF, NOT YET INCORPORATED INTO THE CONSENSUS, RETURNS TO A
MORE LOGICAL SOLUTION WITH A RE-CURVE TRACK INTO NORTHERN JAPAN.
BASED ON THESE PROBLEMS, THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS POSITIONED EAST OF AND FASTER THAN THE
CONSENSUS. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO PEAK NEAR 65 KNOTS, AT BEST, AND
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES JAPAN. 15W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BEFORE TAU 72 DUE
TO THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
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