Wednesday, September 14, 2011

TS ROKE [ONYOK] - Update #008


for Wednesday, 14 September 2011 [6:30 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday Sep 11 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on ROKE (ONYOK).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 25 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wed 14 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #010/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
18W (ONYOK) upgraded to a Tropical Storm and is now known internationally as ROKE - a common name for a man in Micronesia, USA. This system has been tracking NNE across the Western Pacific Ocean.

Meanwhile, a weak Tropical Disturbance (LPA) tagged as 95W, has formed east of the Batanes Group of Islands...near 19.9N 125.5E or about 371 km ESE of Basco. This disturbance is likely to move towards the much stronger TS ROKE positioned to its NE.

Residents and visitors along the Okinawa, Ryukyus & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of ROKE (ONYOK).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed September 14 2011
Location of Center: 24.1º N Lat 138.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 304 km East of P. A. R.
Distance 2: 343 km WSW of Iwo To
Distance 3: 1,059 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 1,693 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Ryukyus-Okinawa Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Wed Sep 14


ROKE (ONYOK) is expected to turn back to the northwest over the next 24...bending more to the west-northwest through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will be approaching the Ryukyu Island Chain with decreasing forward speed on Saturday. Based on this new predicted path, ROKE will no longer re-enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. 18W is now a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Further strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days...and ROKE could be near typhoon intensity by the weekend.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING:  Strengthens more as it tracks back towards the NW...about 730 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [2AM SEP 15: 26.0N 135.1 @ 85kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING:  Nearing typhoon intensity as it moves closer to the Ryukyus...about 199 km SE of Naje Island [2AM SEP 16: 27.5N 131.4E @ 100kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING:  Almost a Category 1 Typhoon as it decreases its forward speed while approaching the Ryukyu Islands...about 91 km SSE of Naje Island [2AM SEP 17: 27.8N 130.0E @ 110kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ROKE's (ONYOK) circulation has started to become better organized, however its convective rainbands remain restricted over the eastern periphery with some expansion along the south. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

EASTERN RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Iwo To, Bonin, & Chichi Jima. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 400 mm (high) along areas near the center of ROKE (ONYOK). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: WEAK >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with isolated to scattered rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: MOST PARTS OF THE PHILIPPINES. Calm & light to moderate NW, Westerly to SW'ly winds (not in excess of 30 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS ROKE (ONYOK)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1811.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS ROKE (ONYOK)...go visit our website @:


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