Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Typhoon NESAT [PEDRING] - Update #017


for Wednesday, 28 September 2011 [7:45 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday Sep 26 2011):

Please be informed that due to power interruptions caused by PEDRING's strong winds, T2K updates will be delayed from time to time. Kindly bear with me. Thank you ~ MVP. Meanwhile, T2K 3-hrly updates ends...back to its 6-hrly updates on web, email, & android (iTyphoon) (except 12:00 Midnight).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wed 28 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #018/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon NESAT (PEDRING) weakens to Category 1 as it moves WNW farther away from Luzon. Its rainbands continues to bring rains and gusty winds across Western Luzon.

Meanwhile, the small TD over the Western Pacific is now named NALGAE and is forecast to enter PAR Thursday.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Hainan should closely monitor the progress of NESAT (PEDRING).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed September 28 2011
Location of Eye: 17.5º N Lat 117.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 350 km West of Vigan City
Distance 2: 355 km WNW of San Fernando City
Distance 3: 378 km WSW of Laoag City
Distance 4: 392 km WNW of Baguio City
Distance 5: 527 km NW of Metro Manila
Distance 6: 604 km SE of Hong Kong
Distance 7: 638 km SE of Macau
Distance 8: 716 km ESE of Hainan, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1,110 km (600 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 26 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PhT Wed Sep 28


NESAT (PEDRING) will continue to move generally west-northwest throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will continue to traverse the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea...leaving the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) today...and making landfall over Hainan Island Thursday evening or early Friday. NESAT will eventually move into the Gulf of Tonkin as a downgraded Tropical Storm...and make its last landfall over Northern Vietnam early Saturday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 140 km/hr (75 knots) with higher gusts. NESAT is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Re-strengthening of this system will be expected as it moves across the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 295 kilometers (160 nautical miles). NESAT is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,100 kilometers (600 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING:  Maintains its WNW track across the South China Sea...intensifying as it approaches Hainan Island [2AM SEP 29: 18.7N 113.7E @ 150kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING:  Over the northern part of Hainan...weakens slightly [2AM SEP 30: 19.8N 110.0E @ 140kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING:  Downgraded to a Tropical Storm as it makes landfall along the shores of Northern Vietnam [2AM OCT 01: 20.3 106.8E @ 110kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


NESAT's (PEDRING) circulation remains intact & very large with little development, however its central convection has become somewhat loose. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (West Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (West Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea) effects to land. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Western Luzon. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 250 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 251 to 400 mm (high) along areas near the center of NESAT (PEDRING). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Western Luzon. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Luzon & Visayas.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, MINDORO, METRO MANILA & PALAWAN. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 75 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
In Effect:

The above areas will continue to experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and 100-185 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

External Links for TY NESAT (PEDRING)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2011.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop




>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TY NESAT (PEDRING)...go visit our website @:


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