for Saturday, 10 September 2011 [8:00 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Sep 08 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on KULAP (NONOY).
KULAP (NONOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KULAP [NONOY/17W/1114]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Sat 10 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #011/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression KULAP (NONOY) staying alive while tracking WNW across the East China Sea.
Residents and visitors along the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of KULAP (NONOY).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat September 10 2011
Location of Center: 30.8º N Lat 127.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 305 km SSE of Cheju Is., S.Korea
Distance 2: 335 km WSW of Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 3: 351 km NW of Naje Is., Japan
Distance 4: 554 km ESE of Shanghai, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: Cheju Island-Korea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 300 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 280 km [Small]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3 AM JST Sat Sep 10
24-HOUR FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
KULAP (NONOY) is expected to track northwestward during the next 12 hours...with a sharp northerly turn thereafter. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will pass very close to the west of Cheju Island later tonight.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. KULAP is a weak Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will eventually dissipate within 12 to 24 hours.
The following is the summary of the 24-hour forecast outlook on this system:
SATURDAY EVENING: Moving NW-ward closer to the Korean Peninsula...about 171 km SSW of Cheju Island [2PM SEP 10: 32.0N 126.2 @ 45kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakened into an area of low pressure (Tropical Disturbance) as it approaches the southwestern coast of Korea...about 96 km NW of Cheju Island [2AM SEP 11: 34.2N 126.0E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the 24-hour Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
KULAP's (NONOY) circulation has reorganized near its center with concentrated rainbands along the south and north side. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
. RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Cheju Island and the Southern Coast of Korea. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 105 to 300 mm (low to high) along areas near the center of KULAP. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
Tropical Disturbance 91W (LPA) still consolidating to the NNW of the Marianas...may likely develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 2 to 3 days. The system was located about 655 km NNW of Guam, CNMI (19.0N 142.9E)...maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...moving West slowly. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential remains @ MEDIUM (50%). To view the latest satellite image on this storm kindly click this link.
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: THE WHOLE OF THE PHILIPPINES. Calm & light to moderate SE'ly to SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SAT 10 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 30.4N 127.5E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF CHEJU-DO, KOREA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091709Z AMSR-E
36 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT. THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE
UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WITH MODERATE (20 KNOTS)
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE 091211Z ASCAT IMAGE
INDICATE 15-20 KNOT WINDS WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC SHOW 10-15 KNOT WINDS WITH SLP VALUES RANGING
FROM 1010-1013 MB. DESPITE THIS DATA, THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS
25 KNOTS, LARGELY DUE TO THE DEFINED SIGNATURE ON THE AMSR-E IMAGE
AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO INCREASING VWS (30-50 KNOTS)
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A JET OVER THE KOREAN
PENINSULA. TD 17W IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE NORTHWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR TOWARD SOUTH KOREA BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU 12 TO TAU 24...(more info)
>> KULAP, meaning: Rose. Name contributed by: Thailand.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
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> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD KULAP (NONOY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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