Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Typhoon ROKE [ONYOK] - Update #22


for Tuesday, 20 September 2011 [7:15 AM PhT]

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+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 185 km/hr
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:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tue 20 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #034/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
ROKE (ONYOK) rapidly intensified into a Major Typhoon (Category 3)...starting to accelerate northeast towards Southern Honshu.

Residents and visitors along Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of ROKE (ONYOK).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Tue September 20 2011
Location of Center: 28.6º N Lat 131.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 146 km East of Naje Is., Ryukyus
Distance 2: 340 km SSE of Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 3: 417 km NE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 594 km SSW of Kochi, Japan
Distance 5: 904 km SW of Nagoya, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph (100 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph (125 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Southern Honshu
CPA [ETA] to S.Honshu: Wednesday [1pm JST]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 220 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3 AM JST Tue Sep 20


ROKE (ONYOK) is expected to continue accelerating NE-ward during the next 2 days...with more speed on Day 3. On the forecast track, the center of the typhoon will make landfall over Southern Honshu, just to the WSW of Tokyo on Wednesday noontime...and will pass close to the north of Metropolitan Tokyo Wednesday evening. ROKE will be just along the Kuril Island Chain by Thursday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to near 185 km/hr (100 knots) with higher gusts. ROKE is now a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some weakening is expected during the next 24 hours as it approaches the southern coast of Honshu. It will remain a typhoon prior in making landfall to Japan. ROKE will start transforming from a Tropical Cyclone to an Extratropical Cyclone between 48 to 72 hours or just after the system exits Honshu, Japan.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 240 kilometers (130 nautical miles). KULAP is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 835 kilometers (450 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Starts to decay as it approaches the coast of Southern Honshu... weakens to a Category 2 typhoon...about 662 km SSW of Tokyo, Japan [2AM SEP 21: 31.7N 134.4 @ 165kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING:  Exiting Honshu or just along the NE Coast...starts to transform into an Extratropical Cyclone...about 192 km NE of Sendai, Japan [2AM SEP 22: 39.3N 142.7E @ 75kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING:  Becomes Extratropical as it moves quickly away from the Kuril Islands...about 433 km ENE of Kuril Islands [2AM SEP 23: 47.2 155.7E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ROKE's (ONYOK) large circulation remains organized w/ heavy rainband convection and a 19-km eye at the center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

19-KM. EYE - over water (just ENE of Naje Island). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (just ENE of Naje Island)...not affecting any major land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Eastern Ryukyus & the Southern Coast of Kyushu. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across East China Sea, Okinawa, Rest of Kyushu & Shikoku. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 220 mm (medium to high) along areas near the center of ROKE (ONYOK). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Southern Japan particularly the southern shores of Honshu. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of the Southern Islands of Japan (Okinawa-Ryukyus) and other shorelines of Japan.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY ROKE (ONYOK)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1811.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:


For the complete details on TY ROKE (ONYOK)...go visit our website @:


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