Saturday, September 17, 2011

TS ROKE [ONYOK] - Update #16


for Saturday, 17 September 2011 [6:57 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday Sep 16 2011):

Please be informed that beginning September 15 to 20 (Thu-Tue), T2K will be issuing irregular advisories as I am currently out for vacation. Kindly bear with me. Thank you ~ MVP.


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Sat 17 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #022/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm ROKE (ONYOK) has been digging southward over the past 6 hours...weakens slightly.

This system will slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) & bring occasional shower or rains w/ breezy conditions across Western Luzon through the weekend.

Residents and visitors along the Okinawa, Ryukyus & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of ROKE (ONYOK).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat September 17 2011
Location of Center: 25.5º N Lat 129.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 56 km North of P. A. R.
Distance 2: 211 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 345 km South of Naje Is., Ryukyus
Distance 4: 806 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 962 km NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: South @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
CPA [ETA] to Okinawa: Sunday-Monday
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20 mm/hr (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 925 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 19 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Sat Sep 17


ROKE (ONYOK) is expected to drift slowly Westward during the next 24 hours...and will track more NW to NNW-ward over the next 36 to 48 hours. Through 72 hours, ROKE will beging recurving towards the NE. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will be approaching the eastern shores of Okinawa late Sunday or Monday...passing across Eastern Ryukyus on Tuesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. 18W is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some fluctuations on its strength is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 175 kilometers (95 nautical miles) from the center.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING:  Intensifying as it drifts westward closer to Okinawa...about 155 km ESE of Naha International Airport [2AM SEP 18: 25.6N 129.1 @ 85kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING:  Continues to intensify as it passes very close to the east of Okinawa Island...starts to recurve towards the North...about 100 km East of Naha International Airport [2AM SEP 19: 26.2N 128.7E @ 95kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Accelerates NE-ward across Eastern Ryukyus...about 133 km South of Naje Island [2AM SEP 20: 27.4 129.8E @ 95kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ROKE's (ONYOK) circulation remains very large with an absence of convection in between the outermost & inner rainbands.. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Okinawa & Ryukyus. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across North Philippine Sea & the Iwo To-Bonin-Chichi Jima Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 400 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 25 to 200 mm (medium to high) along areas near the center of ROKE (ONYOK). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing afternoon or evening showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: Portions of WESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, MINDORO & LUBANG ISLAND. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS ROKE (ONYOK)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1811.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS ROKE (ONYOK)...go visit our website @:


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