for Monday, 12 September 2011 [6:20 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday Sep 12 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 18W (UNNAMED).
18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Mon 12 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #004/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression 18W (Unnamed) continues to creep westward closer to the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...will be locally named as ONYOK once it enters PAR late tonight or early tomorrow.
Residents and visitors along the Okinawa, Ryukyus & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of 18W (Unnamed).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon September 12 2011
Location of Center: 21.3º N Lat 135.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 52 km East of P. A. R.
Distance 2: 973 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 1,405 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 04 kph (02 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 205 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 1,110 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Mon Sep 12
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
18W (UNNAMED) is expected to move west-northwestward & slightly accelerate during the next 48 hours...with a turn towards the northwest thereafter. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be approaching the southern shores of Okinawa by late Thursday.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 18W is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 to 72 hours...and the depression could become a Tropical Storm (TS) on Tuesday.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens to a Tropical Storm as it moves WNW-ward across the North Philippine Sea...about 706 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM SEP 13: 21.9N 132.6 @ 65kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to intensify as it begins to turn NW'ly in the direction of the Southern Islands of Japan...about 424 km SSE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM SEP 14: 23.2N 129.9E @ 85kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching typhoon strength as it moves out of PAR...approaching the southern shores of Okinawa Island...about 159 km South of Okinawa City [2PM SEP 15: 25.1N 128.1E @ 100kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
18W's (Unnamed) circulation remains very large and is having a hard time consolidating with most of its rainbands restricted along the eastern periphery. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Iwo To, Bonin, & Chichi Jima. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 205 mm (high) along areas near the center of 18W. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue across the following affected areas: LUZON, BICOL & THE VISAYAS. Calm & light to moderate Southerly to SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**NOT YET AVAILABLE**
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> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 18W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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