for Saturday, 03 September 2011 [7:30 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 026
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Sat 03 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm TALAS (15W) making landfall over Southern Shikoku...will reach Western Honshu later this afternoon.
Residents and visitors along Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION 2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat September 03 2011
Location of Center: 33.3º N Lat 133.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 36 km SE of Kochi, Japan
Distance 2: 155 km WSW of Tanabe, Japan
Distance 3: 156 km SSW of Okayama, Japan
Distance 4: 164 km WSW of Wakayama, Japan
Distance 5: 171 km SE of Hiroshima, Japan
Distance 6: 288 km SW of Kyoto, Japan
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Shikoku-Western Honshu Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 210 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 1,205 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM JST Sat Sep 03
TALAS (15W) is expected move toward the North during the next 12 to 24 hours, with a turn towards the NNE through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will move across Shikoku, Japan in the next few hours and then cross Western Honshu this afternoon. TALAS will move into the Sea of Japan Sunday...and shall be just along the coast of Eastern Russia early Monday. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving North to NNW-ward across the Sea of Japan...about 290 km North of Okayama, Japan [5AM SEP 04: 37.3N 134.2E @ 95kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Just along the coast of Eastern Russia...about 82 km SE of Olga, Russia [2AM SEP 05: 43.1N 135.8E @ 95kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) have decreased to near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. TALAS will continue losing strength upon crossing Shikoku & Western Honshu today.
Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 315 kilometers (170 nautical miles) from the center. TALAS remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,205 kilometers (650 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
TALAS' (15W) large radial circulation has become more fragmented as it makes landfall along Southern Japan. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
LARGE EYE-LIKE CENTER - Over Shikoku, Japan Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
FRAGMENTED INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Shikoku, Eastern Kyushu & Western Honshu. Tropical Storm to Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Tropical Storm to Near-Typhoon Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the whole of Japan & the Sea of Japan except Northern Honshu. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 105 to 210 mm (high) along areas near the center of TALAS (15W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Depression 98W (LPA) nearing Tropical Depression (TD) status as it moves West slowly to the NE of the Northernmost Mariana Islands. The system was located about 336 km NE of Agrihan Is., CNMI (20.6N 148.1E)...maximum sustained winds of 35 kph. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential is HIGH (90%). To view the latest satellite image on this storm kindly click this link.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SAT 03 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 33.1N 134.0E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST WEST OF NORTHWARD AT 09 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM ARE BECOMING FRAGMENTED
AS IT IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO EASTERN SHIKOKU. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS BASED ON A RADAR LOOP FROM SHIKOKU. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE STORM IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE EAST OF JAPAN AND CAUSE TS 15W TO RECURVE
TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ) AFTER TAU
12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN RAPIDLY ABSORB INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE,
BECOMING AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM BEFORE TAU 48. THE INCREASED VWS
AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOJ WILL ALSO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM INTO A 30-KT LOW BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE MOSTLY UNRELIABLE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
ECMWF, ALL MODELS ARE BRINGING THE VORTEX DUE NORTH TOWARDS THE
RUSSIAN FAR EAST AND INTO THE JET STREAM - AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF, RECURVING THE
CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD...more info)
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
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