Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Typhoon ROKE [ONYOK] - Update #24


for Wednesday, 21 September 2011 [7:45 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Sep 21 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on ROKE (ONYOK).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Wed 21 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #038/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
After briefly reaching Category 4 status last night, Typhoon ROKE (ONYOK) starts to gradually weaken...just along the shores of Southern Honshu.

Residents and visitors along Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of ROKE (ONYOK).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed September 21 2011
Location of Eye: 32.5º N Lat 135.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 134 km South of Tanabe, Japan
Distance 2: 194 km ESE of Kochi, Japan
Distance 3: 335 km SW of Nagoya, Japan
Distance 4: 454 km ENE of Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 5: 539 km WSW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph (100 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph (125 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Towards: Southern Honshu
CPA [ETA] to S.Honshu: This Afternoon [2-3pm JST]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 150 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 26 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3 AM JST Wed Sep 21


ROKE (ONYOK) is expected to accelerate NE-ward during the next 36 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the typhoon will make landfall over Southern Honshu, just to the WSW of Tokyo this afternoon...and will pass close to the north of Metropolitan Tokyo tonight. ROKE will be just along the Kuril Island Chain Thursday afternoon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 185 km/hr (100 knots) with higher gusts. ROKE is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued weakening is expected during the next 12 hours as it approaches the southern coast of Honshu. It will remain a typhoon prior in making landfall to Japan. ROKE will start transforming from a Tropical Cyclone to an Extratropical Cyclone between 24 to 36 hours or just after the system exits Honshu, Japan.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 405 kilometers (220 nautical miles). KULAP is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers (480 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 36-hour forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING:  Exits Honshu as it becomes an Extratropical Cyclone...about 239 km NE of Sendai, Japan [2AM SEP 22: 39.7N 143.0 @ 100kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON:  Passing over the Kuril Islands...weakens...about 45 km South of Kuril Islands [2PM SEP 22: 45.0N 149.1E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ROKE's (ONYOK) large circulation remains organized but has started to decay...with its eye starting to fill-in. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

19-KM. CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (just south of Shikoku). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (just south of Tanabe City)...slightly affecting the coastal areas of Southern Honshu. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the rest of Shikoku and Southern Honshu. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the whole of Japan, except Hokkaido. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 150 mm (medium to high) along areas near the center of ROKE (ONYOK). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Southern Japan particularly the southern shores of Shikoku & Honshu. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of the Southern Islands of Japan (Okinawa-Ryukyus) and other shorelines of Japan.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY ROKE (ONYOK)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1811.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 Hours Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TY ROKE (ONYOK)...go visit our website @:


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