for Monday, 05 September 2011 [8:30 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday September 03 2011):
Now issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NORU (16W).
NORU (16W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM NORU [16W/1113]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Mon 05 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #007/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm NORU (16W) gradually losing strength as it turns northwestward across the open Western Pacific Ocean.
Sailors and Sea Navigators near its path should closely monitor the progress of NORU (16W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon September 05 2011
Location of Center: 33.2º N Lat 149.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 931 km ESE of Tokyo, Japan
Distance 2: 953 km SE of Sendai, Japan
Distance 3: 1,390 km South of Kuril Islands
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 31 kph (17 kts)
Towards: Kuril Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 205 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 775 km [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 AM JST Mon Sep 05
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
NORU (16W) is expected to maintain its fast, Northerly track during the next 24 to 48 hours...On the forecast track, the center of the storm will continue to accelerate across the open seas of the Western Pacific, and shall pass along the Kuril Islands on Tuesday evening.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. NORU is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Maintaining its fast NNW motion across the open Western Pacific Ocean...about 824 km East of Tokyo, Japan [2PM SEP 05: 35.4N 148.8E @ 65kph]. TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Becoming Extratropical as it moves toward the Kuril Islands...about 672 km East of Sendai, Japan [2AM SEP 06: 38.2N 148.6E @ 65kph]. TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to a depression as it nears Extratropical...about 367 km South of Kuril Islands [2PM SEP 06: 42.1N 148.9E @ 55kph]. WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes Extratropical as it passes over the Kuril Islands...about 156 km North of Kuril Islands [2AM SEP 07: 47.0N 149.5E @ 45kph].
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NORU's (16W) circulation remains disorganized while moving quickly NNW to Northward over the open sea. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not affecting any islands or major land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 105 to 205 mm (high) along areas near the center of NORU. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) MON 05 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 32.5N 149.6E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS BECOMING FRAGMENTED AND DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER,
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY (MI) AND SCATTEROMETRY PASSES INDICATE THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS INTACT. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED
ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND ON A 041616Z SSMIS (MI) WITH POOR
CONFIFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS DERIVED FROM DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30-40 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
SYSTEM AND IS INHIBITING OUTFLOW. THIS IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 16W IS BEING STEERED BY A HIGH-AMPLITUDE DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS
TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. CONCURRENTLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. TS NORU WILL BECOME A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 48.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GFS TO
THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE UP TO TAU 36. THIS TRACK FORECAST
IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS...(more info)
>> NORU, meaning: Roe Deer. Name contributed by: RO Korea.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS NORU (16W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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