for Sunday, 04 September 2011 [7:15 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 029
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Sun 04 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm TALAS (15W) weakened slightly as it starts moving into the Sea of Japan...currently just along the northwestern shores of Honshu
Residents and visitors along Japan & Eastern Russia should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun September 04 2011
Location of Center: 35.8º N Lat 133.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 124 km NNW of Okayama, Japan
Distance 2: 190 km NE of Hiroshima, Japan
Distance 3: 198 km WNW of Kyoto, Japan
Distance 4: 224 km NW of Wakayama, Japan
Distance 5: 256 km North of Kochi, Japan
Distance 6: 826 km SSE of Vladivostok, Russia
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Sea Of Japan-Eastern Russia
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 210 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 992 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 1,295 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM JST Sun Sep 04
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
TALAS (15W) is expected to swiftly accelerate toward the NNE during the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will move across the Sea of Japan throughout the day...and approach the coast of Eastern Russia Monday. TALAS will become an Extratropical Low prior in making landfall over Eastern Russia Monday evening or early Tuesday morning. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system. 
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Just along the northern part of the Sea of Japan...about 334 km SE of Vladivostok, Russia [5AM SEP 05: 41.0N 134.8E @ 85kph]. TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes an Extratropical Cyclone while moving into Eastern Russia...about 371 km NE of Vladivostok, Russia [2AM SEP 06: 45.3N 135.4E @ --kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) have decreased to near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue to lose strength as it enters unfavorable environment of the Sea of Japan.
TALAS remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,295 kilometers (700 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
TALAS' (15W) large circulation remains fragmented as it moves into the Sea of Japan. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: FRAGMENTED INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the coastal areas of the Northern & Northwestern parts of Honshu. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the rest of Honshu & the Sea of Japan. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 105 to 210 mm (high) along areas near the center of TALAS (15W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SUN 04 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 35.7N 134.3E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTH-
EAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS EXITED INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN AS IT
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
GROSSLY ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECAME EXPOSED TO THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BECOME SHALLOW
AND FRAGMENTED. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON RADAR REFLECTIVITY
LOOP FROM KINKI, JAPAN, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TS 15W IS NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS AND AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
THAT'S DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, IN AN AREA OF STRONG (30-50KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TS TALAS WILL BE RAPIDLY
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION, BECOMING A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 24. THE MAJORITY OF
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TRACK THE VORTEX ALMOST DUE
NORTH IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE SOLID RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS...more info)
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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