for Thursday, 29 September 2011 [6:45 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Sep 28 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NESAT (PEDRING).
NESAT (PEDRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON NESAT [PEDRING/20W/1117]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 022
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Thu 29 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #024/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The large core of Typhoon NESAT (PEDRING) now traversing the northern shores of Hainan...passing very near the City of Haikou...Typhoon force-winds blasting the area.
Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Hainan should closely monitor the progress of NESAT (PEDRING).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu September 29 2011
Location of Eye: 20.3º N Lat 110.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 47 km ENE of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 2: 115 km SSE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 3: 124 km North of Qionghai, China
Distance 4: 145 km NE of Danzhou, Hainan
Distance 5: 420 km SW of Hong Kong
Distance 6: 516 km ESE of Hanoi, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: Gulf of Tonkin-Northern Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 310 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-25 mm/hr (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1,020 km (550 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM HKT Thu Sep 29
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
NESAT (PEDRING) will continue to move generally west-northwest to westward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will continue to brush the northern shores of Hainan Island tonight...entering the Gulf of Tonkin around midnight...and will make its final landfall over Northern Vietnam Friday afternoon, passing over/near Hanoi City Friday evening. NESAT will dissipate along Northern Vietnam-Laos Border on Saturday afternoon.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. NESAT is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. NESAT will weaken to a Tropical Storm tonight due to the topographical effects of Hainan Island & the cooler sea surface of the Gulf of Tonkin.
Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 280 kilometers (150 nautical miles). NESAT remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,020 kilometers (550 nautical miles).
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Over the shores of Northern Vietnam, making its final landfall...weakened to a Storm [2PM SEP 30: 20.9N 106.9E @ 100kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipated along the Laos-Vietnam Border...just an area of low pressure...about 291 km West of Hanoi City, Vietnam [2PM OCT 01: 20.9N 103.0E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NESAT's (PEDRING) circulation remains unchanged...revealing the very large & strong rain bands, with loose and large center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - along the Northern coastline of Hainan Island. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - spreading and affecting Northern Hainan & Guangdong's Southern Peninsula. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - spreading and affecting the rest of Hainan, Western Guangdong & the Gulf of Tonkin. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting SW China, & Northern Vietnam. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 151 to 310 mm (high) along areas near the center of NESAT (PEDRING). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic). COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Southern China particularly the coast of Hainan & Southwestern Guangdong. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Vietnam, Southern China & Western Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY NESAT (PEDRING)
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2011.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY NESAT (PEDRING)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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