Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Typhoon ROKE [ONYOK] - Update #23


for Tuesday, 20 September 2011 [8:00 PM PhT]

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+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
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:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Tue 20 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #036/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon ROKE (ONYOK) weakens to Category 2 as it maintain its northeast track towards Southern Honshu.

Residents and visitors along Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of ROKE (ONYOK).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue September 20 2011
Location of Eye: 29.7º N Lat 133.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 312 km SE of Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 2: 334 km ENE of Naje Is., Ryukyus
Distance 3: 426 km SSW of Kochi, Japan
Distance 4: 499 km SSW of Tanabe, Japan
Distance 5: 915 km SW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph (95 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph (115 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Southern Honshu
CPA [ETA] to S.Honshu: Wednesday [2-3pm JST]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 150 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 26 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3 PM JST Tue Sep 20


ROKE (ONYOK) is expected to accelerate NE-ward during the next 2 days. On the forecast track, the center of the typhoon will make landfall over Southern Honshu, just to the WSW of Tokyo on Wednesday afternoon...and will pass close to the north of Metropolitan Tokyo Wednesday evening. ROKE will be just along the Kuril Island Chain Thursday afternoon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 175 km/hr (95 knots) with higher gusts. ROKE is a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued weakening is expected during the next 24 hours as it approaches the southern coast of Honshu. It will remain a typhoon prior in making landfall to Japan. ROKE will start transforming from a Tropical Cyclone to an Extratropical Cyclone between 36 to 48 hours or just after the system exits Honshu, Japan.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 260 kilometers (140 nautical miles). KULAP is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers (480 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:  Weakens to a Category 1 Typhoon while making landfall over Southern Honshu...about 148 km WSW of Tokyo, Japan [2PM SEP 21: 34.9N 138.4 @ 140kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON:  Passing near Kuril Islands as it becomes an Extratropical Cyclone...about 78 km South of Kuril Islands [2PM SEP 22: 44.9N 149.6E @ 95kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ROKE's (ONYOK) large circulation remains organized w/ heavy rainband convection and a 35-km elongated eye at the center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

35-KM. EYE - over water (just south of Shikoku). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (just south of Shikoku)...not affecting any major land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the southern shores of Kyushu-Shikoku. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Ryukyus, Okinawa, & other parts of Japan. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 150 mm (medium to high) along areas near the center of ROKE (ONYOK). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Southern Japan particularly the southern shores of Shikoku & Honshu. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of the Southern Islands of Japan (Okinawa-Ryukyus) and other shorelines of Japan.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY ROKE (ONYOK)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1811.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:


For the complete details on TY ROKE (ONYOK)...go visit our website @:


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