for Monday, 12 September 2011 [12:25 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday Sep 11 2011):
Now initiating 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 18W (UNNAMED).
18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Mon 12 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #003/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression 18W (Unnamed) moving very slowly WNW-ward as it slightly gained strength...expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later today.
Residents and visitors along the Okinawa, Ryukyus & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of 18W (Unnamed).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Mon September 12 2011
Location of Center: 21.3º N Lat 135.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 73 km East of P. A. R.
Distance 2: 989 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 1,425 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 04 kph (02 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 150 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Mon Sep 12
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
18W (UNNAMED) is expected to move west-northwestward during the next 48 hours...with a turn towards the northwest thereafter.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 18W is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 to 72 hours...and the depression should become a Tropical Storm (TS) later tonight or Tuesday.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
TUESDAY MORNING: Strengthens to a Tropical Storm as it moves across the North Philippine Sea...about 721 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [8AM SEP 13: 21.8N 132.7 @ 75kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Becomes a strong Tropical Storm as it maintain its WNW track towards Okinawa and the Ryukyus...about 438 km SSE of Okinawa, Japan [8AM SEP 14: 23.0N 129.8E @ 95kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Approaching typhoon strength as it passes to the south of Okinawa Island...about 200 km South of Okinawa City [8AM SEP 15: 24.7N 127.9E @ 100kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
18W's (Unnamed) circulation remains broad and still in the process of consolidating with most of its rainbands restricted along the eastern periphery. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 25 mm (low rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 26 to 150 mm (low to high) along areas near the center of 18W. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue across the following affected areas: LUZON, BICOL & THE VISAYAS. Calm & light to moderate Southerly to SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) MON 12 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 21.2N 135.7E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A PERSISTENT, ISOLATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE CENTER. MSI ALSO SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED EAST OF THE LLCC PERSISTING WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONG
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. A 112306Z SSMIS
IMAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD BUT DEFINED LLCC WITH SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES FAIR OUTFLOW WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST, HOWEVER, OUTFLOW IS
RESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A TUTT CELL NEAR 22N 132E. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM
RJTD AND PGTW. SCATTEROMETER DATA GENERALLY INDICATES CORE WINDS OF
15-20 KNOTS WITH 25-30 KNOTS EXTENDING OUT TO 300 NM NORTH OF THE
CENTER (ALSO CONFIRMED BY A 11/12Z SHIP REPORT NEAR 25N 134E
INDICATING 28 KNOTS). WIND RADII HAVE BEEN INCREASED BASED ON THE
EXTENSIVE WIND FIELD INDICATED IN BOTH ASCAT AND OCEANSAT DATA. 3.
FORECAST REASONING. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND THE
SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE...(more info)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**NOT YET AVAILABLE**
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 12-18HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 18W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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