for Saturday, 24 September 2011 [12:11 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Sep 24 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NESAT (Pre-PEDRING).
NESAT (Pre-PEDRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
TROPICAL STORM NESAT [Pre-PEDRING/20W/1117]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Sat 24 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #003/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm 20W (Pre-PEDRING) continues to gain strength as it maintains its west-northwest track...now internationally known as NESAT - a Cambodian word for "fishing." This potential howler will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) around sunset or tonight.
Projected Landfall Area (PLA): Isabela & Cagayan Area around late Tuesday Night.
Residents and visitors along Luzon particularly Cagayan & Isabela should closely monitor the progress of NESAT (Pre-PEDRING).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat September 24 2011
Location of Center: 14.6º N Lat 135.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 75 km East of P. A. R.
Distance 2: 624 km NNW of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 1,222 km ENE of Bicol Region, PH
Distance 4: 1,437 km ESE of Northern Luzon, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Northern Luzon
CPA [ETA] to Isabela-Cagayan: Tuesday Night [9-11pm PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 260 km (140 nm) [Small]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Sat Sep 24
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
NESAT (Pre-PEDRING) is expected to continue moving on a straight-WNW motion throughout the forecast...with a slight fluctuation on its forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will move into the warm Philippine Sea tonight...and will be approaching the east coast of Northern Luzon, particularly Isabela & Cagayan on Tuesday.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. NESAT is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Gradual strengthening is likely during the next couple of days...and NESAT could become a Typhoon Sunday afternoon.
Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center. NESAT is currently a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 260 kilometers (140 nautical miles). Additional increase on its circulation size is anticipated as the system moves into the warm Philippine Sea in the next couple of days.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
SUNDAY MORNING: Well within the PAR as it slightly accelerates...almost a Typhoon...about 824 km ENE of Catanduanes, PH [8AM SEP 25: 15.3N 131.8 @ 110kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Becomes a Category 2 Typhoon as it maintains its WNW movement toward Northern Luzon...about 407 km NE of Catanduanes, PH [8AM SEP 26: 16.0N 127.4E @ 165kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Becomes a Super Typhoon (Category 4) as it bears down the coast of Isabela-Cagayan Area...forward speed decreases...about 150 km ESE of Palanan Bay, Isabela [2AM SEP 27: 17.0 123.9E @ 240kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NESAT's (Pre-PEDRING) circulation continues to develop as it tracks into the Philippine Sea. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...no longer affecting the Caroline Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of NESAT (Pre-PEDRING). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS NESAT (Pre-PEDRING)
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2011.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS NESAT (Pre-PEDRING)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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