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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 027
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Sat 03 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm TALAS (15W) moving inland across Shikoku...will reach Western Honshu in the next few hours.
Residents and visitors along Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION 2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat September 03 2011
Location of Center: 34.0º N Lat 133.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 62 km NNE of Kochi, Japan
Distance 2: 78 km South of Okayama, Japan
Distance 3: 128 km ESE of Hiroshima, Japan
Distance 4: 131 km West of Wakayama, Japan
Distance 5: 151 km WNW of Tanabe, Japan
Distance 6: 233 km SW of Kyoto, Japan
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Western Honshu
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 210 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 1,205 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): XX ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM JST Sat Sep 03
TALAS (15W) is expected to continue moving toward the North during the next 24 hours, with a turn towards the NNE through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will move across Western Honshu in the next few hours...and track across the Sea of Japan late tonight. TALAS will be moving into the central part of Japan Sea Sunday...and over the Eastern Russia on Monday. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving North across the Sea of Japan...about 334 km North of Okayama, Japan [11AM SEP 04: 37.7N 133.9E @ 95kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Turns NNE as it loses tropical characteristics...moving into Eastern Russia [8AM SEP 05: 44.5N 135.7E @ --kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) have decreased to near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. TALAS will weaken upon crossing Western Honshu today.
Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles) from the center. TALAS remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,205 kilometers (650 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
TALAS' (15W) large radial circulation has become more fragmented as it makes landfall along Southern Japan. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
LARGE EYE-LIKE CENTER - Over Shikoku, Japan...moving into Western Honshu. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
FRAGMENTED INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Shikoku, Eastern Kyushu & Western Honshu. Tropical Storm to Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Tropical Storm to Near-Typhoon Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the whole of Japan & the Sea of Japan except Northern Honshu. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 105 to 210 mm (high) along areas near the center of TALAS (15W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Depression 98W (LPA) nearing Tropical Depression (TD) status as it moves West slowly to the NE of the Northernmost Mariana Islands. The system was located about 336 km NE of Agrihan Is., CNMI (20.6N 148.1E)...maximum sustained winds of 35 kph. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential is HIGH (90%). To view the latest satellite image on this storm kindly click this link.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SAT 03 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 33.6N 133.9E.
*TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST WEST OF NORTHWARD
AT 05 KNOTS AND MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN SHIKOKU. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BECOME FRAGMENTED
AS CLOUDS TOPS WARMED UP. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON A RADAR
REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM SHIKOKU WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS BASED ON NEARBY LAND AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STORM IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 15W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST...more info)
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
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