Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Typhoon NESAT [PEDRING] - Update #019


for Wednesday, 28 September 2011 [6:30 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Sep 28 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NESAT (PEDRING).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Wed 28 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #020/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon NESAT (PEDRING) weakened slightly as it moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsobility (PAR)...its outer rainbands has started to move into the coastal areas of Western Guangdong and Eastern Hainan.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm NALGAE has moved slowly West to WSW during the past 6 enter PAR tomorrow.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Hainan should closely monitor the progress of NESAT (PEDRING).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed September 28 2011
Location of Eye: 18.1º N Lat 115.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 532 km WNW of Vigan City
Distance 2: 549 km West of Laoag City
Distance 3: 546 km NW of San Fernando City
Distance 4: 571 km NW of Dagupan City
Distance 5: 584 km WNW of Baguio City
Distance 6: 473 km SSE of Hong Kong
Distance 7: 713 km NW of Metro Manila
Distance 8: 493 km SSE of Macau
Distance 9: 526 km ESE of Hainan Is.
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Hainan
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1,110 km (600 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM HKT Wed Sep 28


NESAT (PEDRING) will continue to move generally west-northwest throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will make landfall over the northeastern portion of Hainan Island Thursday evening...crossing the island for approximately 10 hours before entering the Gulf of Tonkin on Friday afternoon. NESAT will eventually dissipate as it makes its last & final landfall along Northern Vietnam Saturday through Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. NESAT is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. NESAT will still re-intensify a little bit just before hitting Hainan Thursday afternoon.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles). NESAT remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,100 kilometers (600 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY AFTERNOON:  Intensifying as it approaches the northeastern portion of Hainan Island [2PM SEP 29: 19.2N 112.0E @ 140kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON:  Over the Gulf of Tonkin as it weakens to a Tropical Storm [2PM SEP 30: 20.3N 108.4E @ 110kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON:  Downgraded to a Tropical Storm as it makes landfall over Northern Vietnam...about 46 km SE of Hanoi City [2PM OCT 01: 20.7 106.1E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


NESAT's (PEDRING) circulation remains intact & very large with little development, however its central convection has become somewhat loose & exposed. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (West Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (West Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea) effects to land. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Western Coast of Luzon...and has reached the coast of Hainan Island and Western Guangdong. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (very high) along areas near the center of NESAT (PEDRING). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Southern China particularly the coast of Hainan & Southwestern Guangdong. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Luzon & Visayas.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, BORACAY, MINDORO, METRO MANILA, & PALAWAN. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 75 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY NESAT (PEDRING)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2011.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop



>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TY NESAT (PEDRING)...go visit our website @:


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