for Sunday, 04 September 2011 [5:45 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday September 03 2011):
Now issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NORU (16W).
NORU (16W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM NORU [16W/1113]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Sun 04 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #005/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm 16W continued to track poleward across the open seas of the Western Pacific...now internationally known as NORU - a Korean word for a Roe Deer.
Sailors and Sea Navigators near its path should closely monitor the progress of NORU (16W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun September 04 2011
Location of Center: 30.4º N Lat 150.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 819 km NNW of Marcus Island
Distance 2: 946 km ENE of Chichi Jima
Distance 3: 1,197 km SE of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 39 kph (21 kts)
Towards: Kuril Islands
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 70 mm (Medium)
Rainrate (near center): 20-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 775 km [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Sun Sep 04
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
NORU (16W) is expected to maintain its fast, Northerly track during the next 24 to 48 hours...On the forecast track, the center of the storm will continue to accelerate across the open seas of the Western Pacific, and shall approach the Kuril Islands on Tuesday afternoon.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. NORU is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours.
Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 280 kilometers (150 nautical miles) from the center. NORU is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers (420 nautical miles).
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintaining its poleward motion across the open Western Pacific Ocean...about 1,014 km ESE of Tokyo, Japan [2AM SEP 05: 33.1N 150.3E @ 85kph]. MONDAY AFTERNOON: Intensfying while moving Northward...about 902 km ENE of Tokyo, Japan [2PM SEP 05: 36.5N 149.7E @ 95kph]. TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Becoming Extratropical as it moves toward the Kuril Islands...about 656 km South of Kuril Islands [2AM SEP 06: 39.7N 149.6E @ 95kph]. TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Starts to lose strength as it nears the Kuril Islands...almost an Extratropical Cyclone...about 310 km South of Kuril Islands [2PM SEP 06: 42.9N 149.6E @ 85kph].
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NORU's (16W) circulation slightly disorganized while moving quickly northward over the open sea. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Marcus Island. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 25 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 30 to 60 mm (medium) along areas near the center of NORU. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SUN 04 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 29.5N 151.1E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 595 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN TO
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER, INFRARED AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
DEPICT LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. A 032117Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES WITH CENTRAL WINDS
OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS, FROM WHICH THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND A 040559Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALSYSIS INDICATES A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SIDES OF TS 16W, BUT APPEARS TO BE FILLING TO THE NORTH.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE OUTFLOW IS LIMITED ON THESE SIDES AND REMAINS
STRONG TO THE SOUTHEAST. TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS NORU
SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) (>26 DEGREES CELSIUS) UNTIL AFTER TAU 24
WHEN THE SSTS DECREASE. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD INCREASE. TS 16W
IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHWARD TRACK AND
THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS...(more info)
>> NORU, meaning: Roe Deer. Name contributed by: RO Korea.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS NORU (16W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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