Tuesday, September 13, 2011

TD 18W [ONYOK] - Update #007


for Tuesday, 13 September 2011 [6:22 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday Sep 11 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 18W (ONYOK).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr


6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 13 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #008/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression 18W (ONYOK) continues to drift east-northeastward outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...no change in strength.

Residents and visitors along the Okinawa, Ryukyus & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of 18W (ONYOK).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue September 13 2011
Location of Center: 22.7º N Lat 137.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 215 km East of P. A. R.
Distance 2: 1,030 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 1,579 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: ENE @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 470 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 1,000 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Tue Sep 13


18W (ONYOK) is expected to turn back to the northwest with little change in forward speed over the next 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will re-enter the PAR briefly Wednesday evening & exit the second time around Thursday afternoon...will be approaching the Ryukyus-Okinawa Area on Friday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 18W is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 to 72 hours...and the depression could become a Tropical Storm (TS) on Wednesday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:  Strengthens to a Tropical Storm as it moves WNW to NW-ward across the North Philippine Sea...about 854 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM SEP 14: 23.7N 135.7 @ 65kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON:  Continues to intensify as it enters PAR briefly while moving in the direction of the Southern Islands of Japan...about 575 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM SEP 15: 25.0N 133.3E @ 85kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON:  Nearing typhoon strength as it approaches the Ryukyu Islands...about 405 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM SEP 16: 25.9N 131.8E @ 100kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


18W's (ONYOK) circulation remains very large as it remains disorganized. Its convective rainbands remain restricted along the eastern periphery. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

EASTERN RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Iwo To, Bonin, & Chichi Jima. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 470 mm (high) along areas near the center of 18W (ONYOK). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with isolated to scattered rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: MOST PARTS OF THE PHILIPPINES. Calm & light to moderate NW, Westerly to SW'ly winds (not in excess of 30 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TD 18W (ONYOK)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1811.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:


For the complete details on TD 18W (ONYOK)...go visit our website @:


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