Friday, September 16, 2011

TS ROKE [ONYOK] - Update #14


for Friday, 16 September 2011 [9:30 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday Sep 16 2011):

Please be informed that beginning September 15 to 20 (Thu-Tue), T2K will be issuing irregular advisories as I am currently out for vacation. Kindly bear with me. Thank you ~ MVP.


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


9:00 AM PhT (01:00 GMT) Fri 16 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #018/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm ROKE (ONYOK) moving slowly westward closer to the Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands.

This system together with two weak LPAs (95W & 96W) will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) & bring occasional rains w/ breezy conditions across Western Luzon through the weekend.

Residents and visitors along the Okinawa, Ryukyus & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of ROKE (ONYOK).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 9:00 AM PhT Fri September 16 2011
Location of Center: 26.3º N Lat 130.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 145 km North of P. A. R.
Distance 2: 220 km East of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 256 km South of Naje Is., Ryukyus
Distance 4: 854 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 1,040 km NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Ryukyus-Okinawa Area
CPA [ETA] to Okinawa: Saturday-Tuesday
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20 mm/hr (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 945 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Fri Sep 16


ROKE (ONYOK) is expected to crawl generally westward during the next 24 hours...and will track more west-southwest over the next 36 to 48 hours. Through 72 hours, ROKE will start to move erratically. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will be approaching the Ryukyu Island Chain today and will remain quasi-stationary in the vicinity of Okinawa beginning Saturday until Monday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. 18W is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Further strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING:  Maintain its strength as it tracks West slowly toward the Ryukyus...about 140 km East of Okinawa, Japan [2AM SEP 17: 26.6N 129.2 @ 65kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING:  Slowly intensifying as it approaches Okinawa Island...turns WSW...about 50 km East of Naha International Airport [2AM SEP 18: 26.2N 128.2E @ 75kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING:  Crawling WSW to Westward across the southern shores of Okinawa...about 22 km South of Naha International Airport [2AM SEP 19: 26.0N 127.7E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ROKE's (ONYOK) circulation remains very large with increasing spiral curved rainbands beginning to form near the center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Ryukyus, Okinawa, North Philippine Sea & the Iwo To-Bonin-Chichi Jima Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 220 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 25 to 200 mm (medium to high) along areas near the center of ROKE (ONYOK). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains & squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including MINDORO & LUBANG ISLAND. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS ROKE (ONYOK)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1811.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS ROKE (ONYOK)...go visit our website @:


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