for Thursday, 08 September 2011 [6:30 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Sep 08 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter, SMS, and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on KULAP (17W).
KULAP (17W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM KULAP [17W/1114]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thu 08 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #003/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm KULAP (17W) has quickly turned towards the NNW...enters the northeastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...no Philippine local name yet.
Residents and visitors along Okinawa, Ryukyus & the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of KULAP (17W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu September 08 2011
Location of Center: 24.4º N Lat 134.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 699 km West of Iwo To
Distance 2: 654 km SE of Naje Is.
Distance 3: 702 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 1,294 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 1,349 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Ryukyu Islands
CPA [ETA] to Naje: Saturday [4-8pm HKT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 380 mm (Heavy)
Rainrate (near center): 20-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 335 km [Small]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3 AM JST Thu Sep 08
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
KULAP (17W) is expected to turn more to the NW during the next two days. On the forecast track, the center of the storm shall pass over or very close to the Japanese Island of Naje off the Ryukyus on Friday evening.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. KULAP is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...and KULAP should be near Typhoon strength on Saturday.
Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center. KULAP is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles).
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Moves out of the PAR as it turns more to the NW...about 632 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM SEP 08: 25.4N 134.0 @ 95kph]. FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its NW track as it heads for the Ryukyus...about 448 km East of Okinawa, Japan [2AM SEP 09: 26.6N 132.3E @ 95kph]. FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching Naje Island as it nears Typhoon strength...about 83 km SE of Naje Island, Ryukyus [2PM SEP 09: 28.0N 130.3E @ 100kph]. SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Almost a typhoon as it moves away from the Ryukyus...still moving northwestward...about 314 km North of Okinawa, Japan [2AM SEP 10: 29.3N 128.2E @ 110kph].
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL, PALAWAN, & VISAYAS. Calm & light to moderate SE'ly to SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
KULAP's (17W) circulation continues to organize - revealing an exposed low-level circulation center with rain-cloud convection displaced on the south side. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 205 to 380 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of KULAP. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) THU 08 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 23.8N 135.2E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
(IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. INFRARED IMAGERY ALSO
REVEALS SLIGHTLY COOLER CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A
07/1830 TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THIS
TRMM IMAGE ALSO INDICATES DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
SYSTEM, POTENTIALLY INHIBITING CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. A 07/1252Z
PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES TS 17W HAS REMAINED SMALL IN SIZE,
WITH 25-KNOT WIND RADII LESS THAN 120 NM FROM THE CENTER. INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY,
AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH A DECREASING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE 07/1200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS REVEALS 17W IS LOCATED BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND LOW (5-14-KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
TS KULAP’S STEERING INFLUENCE HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED FROM THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE RECENT
TURNING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS NEW FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
PRIMARILY BASED ON THE LOWER THAN EXPECTED INITIAL INTENSITY OF 17W
AND THE SUBSEQUENT STEERING REGIME BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHALLOWER
DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM. TS 17W IS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
EAST. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST SHOULD WEAKEN
THE WESTERN EXTENT, ALLOWING TS 17W TO TRACK POLEWARD, RECURVE OVER
THE KOREAN PENINSULA, AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. WITH THE CURRENTLY
EXPOSED LLCC, STEADY INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND
NORTHWARD TRACK INTO A REGION OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 17W WILL STRUGGLE TO APPROACH
TYPHOON STRENGTH. BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96, TS KULAP IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BECOME TORN APART BY STRONG
WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT WITH EGRR, NOGAPS, AND
GFDN KEEPING 17W ON A STRAIGHT-RUNNING TRACK TOWARD THE WEST AND
DISSIPATING IN EASTERN CHINA, WHILE GFS, ECMWF, JGSM, AND WBAR
RECURVE 17W ACROSS THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
BY TAU 120. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO JGSM, ECMWF, AND GFS, WHICH
DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER TAU
36...(more info)
>> KULAP, meaning: Rose. Name contributed by: Thailand.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS KULAP (17W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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